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FORUMS > The Sin Bin > Brexit Anyone? |
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| [list[/list Quote: Leaguefan "Reality not part of your scene then?
What is happening is only a figment of someones imagination?
You'll be saying next that Carlsberg is proper beer and that a big Mac meal is a gourmets delight! Actually you may not but there so many who will think that and I could hazard an educated guess how they voted!'"
what is happening any sane man knew would do, that there would be negative reactions in the markets and elsewhere however comments that it will get significantly worse are yet to be proven, hence it is only an opinion and not certain to happen. I have no problem with that opinion, it may be proven correct in time, we will see but nobody really knows for sure and that is the only fact here.
your attempt at humour and belittling those who have a different opinion to yourself is in line with almost every other poster on these boards i have encountered so far since the result didn't go the way you wanted, too bad.
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| Quote: bren2k "It's convenient to 'get away' from the economics of the decision isn't it? In the same way that it's convenient to get away from the £350 million quid a week for the NHS, or the end of free movement; because they are inconvenient truths, or more appropriately in the latter two examples, untruths. As Roy Heggarty has pointed out in great detail however, there is no getting away from the economics of the decision - it's a total disaster for our economy, the depth of which has nowhere near been revealed in the few days since the referendum. The market is only just starting to react - it's going to get significantly worse and last for a long time, unless some wonk at Westminster can come up with a way to get us out of this insane situation.'"
I notice you chose to avoid my actual point , essentially we are leaving the German European Union , there might be 27 members other than us , but like us , they don't make the rules
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187.jpg [img:2penstlp]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5994/saints7sk.gif[/img:2penstlp]
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. ":187.jpg |
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| Quote: GUBRATS "A little improvement today , obviously not to Thursdays inflated levels , but considering the current turmoil not too bad up to now IMO'"
We've got companies who've lost 30-40% of their pre-vote value on Thursday, who've today regathered 8% [ifrom that new low[/i. This is quite probably what's known in the trade as a Dead Cat Bounce. The clever trading institutions stop selling for a bit - even buy a little - to stabilise the price. The less clever institutions (and the private investors) are fooled into thinking it's the bottom, and so they jump in for a rise, only to be left high and dry on the spike as the big guys start selling again.
Nothing goes down (or up) in a straight line. We've had the initial shock which accounted for the record-breaking movements. While nothing concrete happens (or the complete political chaos we currently have obscures anything), the markets will dash this way and that, like a flock of starlings. If it looks like a down day, the algos will jump on that and exaggerate it, and ditto if the day looks positive. Occasionally events such as announcements from Merkel, or downgrades by the credit agencies will send a bigger shock and bigger movements. But in the meantime, monitor the trend, and remember that a 10% loss is bigger than a 10% gain. It's far too early to see the trend, because we're only 3 days in now. But it'll be down - guaranteed.
It's also worth bearing in mind that whenever there is news or a solid hint that there might be a way of reversing this mess (what Johnson says will now be something watched very carefully by the markets - astonishingly), the markets will rise. Whenever it seems likely that we really are planning to drive off the cliff, they'll fall. That on its own should tell us what the impact of this will be for our economy in the short, medium and long-term. International money is attracted to safety and growth potential, and flees insecurity and negative growth. The view of international cash is unanimous - Brexit is a disaster.
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187.jpg [img:2penstlp]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5994/saints7sk.gif[/img:2penstlp]
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. ":187.jpg |
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| Quote: GUBRATS "I notice you chose to avoid my actual point , essentially we are leaving the German European Union , there might be 27 members other than us , but like us , they don't make the rules'"
That's unfortunately not true, as we'll find out. When we're begging for scraps from the door in terms of trade agreements, the individual countries will each get a say in what we're allowed. So the Germans are clearly going after our financial services market. The Eastern Europeans will veto any deal which doesn't guarantee free movement of Labour and citizenship rights for those who are already here. The Spanish will insist on the same or greater share of fishing in British waters. The French will slap on barriers to British agriculture. Everyone inside the room will have their own specific local industry which is in direct competition with a British firm, and they'll all want specific advantages. In the past, we've been able to veto those advantages, but now, of course, we won't. We'll have to take what we're given.
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| Reading your post there gives more an indication of the financial games our nice people ' in the city ' play to make their millions , you wonder if they give a stuff about any potential damage they do
Similarily you wonder if your estate agent friends aren't just ' declaring ' difficulties to stimulate selling , as lets face it , that's how they make money
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44480_1390845286.jpg It's been fun.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_44480.jpg |
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| Question to all Remainer's
1. Do you genuinely believe the EU is democratic?
If yes, how so?
If no, why the hell do you support it?
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187.jpg [img:2penstlp]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5994/saints7sk.gif[/img:2penstlp]
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. ":187.jpg |
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| Quote: GUBRATS "Reading your post there gives more an indication of the financial games our nice people ' in the city ' play to make their millions , you wonder if they give a stuff about any potential damage they do
Similarily you wonder if your estate agent friends aren't just ' declaring ' difficulties to stimulate selling , as lets face it , that's how they make money'"
No, they don't give a stuff at all. Financial services is turbocharged capitalism. They exist solely to make as much money as possible, and as they showed in the run-up to 2008, they're quite happy to cheat and lie in order to get that cash. However, at the moment, they're making that cash in this country, and paying a fairly large amount of tax on it while the workers in the system spend their silly salaries on stuff which the rest of us provide. The firms will happily move to another country if there's an advantage, and will either take those workers with them, or simply recruit another bunch in their new home.
Capitalism doesn't give a stuff about nationalism. The only way to try and put limits on that sort of behaviour is to work across national boundaries - essentially sign up to an agreement not to beggar-thy-neighbour. You might call such a club the European Union. Which we just left.
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| Quote: Roy Haggerty "No, they don't give a stuff at all. Financial services is turbocharged capitalism. They exist solely to make as much money as possible, and as they showed in the run-up to 2008, they're quite happy to cheat and lie in order to get that cash. However, at the moment, they're making that cash in this country, and paying a fairly large amount of tax on it while the workers in the system spend their silly salaries on stuff which the rest of us provide. The firms will happily move to another country if there's an advantage, and will either take those workers with them, or simply recruit another bunch in their new home.
Capitalism doesn't give a stuff about nationalism. The only way to try and put limits on that sort of behaviour is to work across national boundaries - essentially sign up to an agreement not to beggar-thy-neighbour. You might call such a club the European Union. Which we just left.'"
I assume they make money from in simple terms ' ups and downs ' so why move to boring Germany with stability ?
But still you accept that they use and in fact create their own instability to make cash , and much of that instability was a result of outlandish claims of doom ( pre referendum but not 12 months ago or now ) by mr,s Cameron and Osbourne ?
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187.jpg [img:2penstlp]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5994/saints7sk.gif[/img:2penstlp]
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. ":187.jpg |
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| Quote: Wire Yed "Question to all Remainer's
1. Do you genuinely believe the EU is democratic?
If yes, how so?
If no, why the hell do you support it?'"
It's not comparable. For example, elements of the UK government are far more undemocratic than anything in the EU. There are no hereditary positions of power in the EU, whereas we have a head of state who has to be born between the right legs, and a House of Lords which still contains 100 guys who are there solely because their distant ancestor was handy with a sword.
Yes there are appointed officials in the EU, but there are appointed officials in all administrations (eg the entire US Cabinet is appointed, not elected), including ours - the rest of the House of Lords is appointed, as are all judges, all ambassadors, all bosses of quangos and agencies. We don't get to elect any of the men and women who run our government. We vote for MPs, and if those MPs form a majority their leader (who only 1/600th of us get to vote for) appoints the rest. In doing so, he has total authority, as in this country, the executive is all powerful and the legislature has very little checking power. So you could argue that the EU is actually rather more accountable because the process of appointing its officials is a matter of endless horse-trading between different Governments, providing a certain degree of check and balance.
Similarly, the EU electoral system is certainly more democratic than ours, because it's proportional. Which is why, ironically, UKIP have just 1 MP in this country despite 4m votes in 2015, whereas they have lots of MEPs.
Finally, it's not a government. I know the right-wing press have banged on about federalism and supranational states, bu the bottom line is that that was always just silly propaganda. The EU is a collection of nation states who choose to abide by decisions which they make collectively, because they believe that the benefits of the decisions which work for them outweigh the negatives of the decisions which work against them. It's not a government, it's a club. On any issues of great importance (eg expansion), each state retains a veto. On lesser issues (eg minimum product specifications), they accept majority decision-making. They don't lose sovereignty, they loan it willingly. And if in any doubt about that, note that when 52% of us decided to pull out, nobody in the EU said "you can't". We always had sovereignty. Our government was always in ultimate charge. We were choosing to co-operate, not being ordered to do so.
So you're asking whether I thought what was essentially a voluntary economic club is more democratic than a nation-state. Two very different things, but even then, the economic club was almost certainly more democratic, institutionally.
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187.jpg [img:2penstlp]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5994/saints7sk.gif[/img:2penstlp]
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. ":187.jpg |
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| Quote: GUBRATS "I assume they make money from in simple terms ' ups and downs ' so why move to boring Germany with stability ?
But still you accept that they use and in fact create their own instability to make cash , and much of that instability was a result of outlandish claims of doom ( pre referendum but not 12 months ago or now ) by mr,s Cameron and Osbourne ?'"
It depends. Some light-fingered institutions like a little instability (within reason), because they make their skim on the ups and downs. But there are other institutions who like stability more than anything else. Which is why at tims of great crisis, like now, you find that money floods into government bonds which actually pay negative returns, because those institutions would rather know they're going to lose 1% a year on their capital, than risk losing much more.
So generally the market likes a little up and down within certain boundaries. This is way outside that.
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18686.jpg In Springfield, they're eating the dogs, the people that came in. They're eating the cats! They're eating the pets!:18686.jpg |
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| Quote: Wire Yed "Question to all Remainer's
1. Do you genuinely believe the EU is democratic?
If yes, how so?
If no, why the hell do you support it?'"
I have no idea how democratic the E.U. is, all I know is as a nation we've never had it so good.
Then to see Farage today gloating in the chamber made me feel more embarrassed to be English than I already do.
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| Quote: The Devil's Advocate "I have no idea how democratic the E.U. is, all I know is as a nation we've never had it so good.
Then to see Farage today gloating in the chamber made me feel more embarrassed to be English than I already do.'"
Funny though
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| Quote: Roy Haggerty "It depends. Some light-fingered institutions like a little instability (within reason), because they make their skim on the ups and downs. But there are other institutions who like stability more than anything else. Which is why at tims of great crisis, like now, you find that money floods into government bonds which actually pay negative returns, because those institutions would rather know they're going to lose 1% a year on their capital, than risk losing much more.
So generally the market likes a little up and down within certain boundaries. This is way outside that.'"
All interesting stuff , looking forward to seeing how things pan out , generally it lands somewhere in the middle of both extremes
Hopefully future debates can be done in the nature of recent ones without the vitriol and insults seen pre vote
Time to walk the dog , one things for certain , be interesting to see how they pick the guests on question time this week
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187.jpg [img:2penstlp]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5994/saints7sk.gif[/img:2penstlp]
"...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these
boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. ":187.jpg |
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| Quote: GUBRATS "Funny though
No, not funny. Humiliating. It was like having a petulant child "you're not laughing now" in a room full of adults. Like it or not, Farage is now seen as representative of the majority of Britons. That's shameful.
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| Quote: Roy Haggerty "No, not funny. Humiliating. It was like having a petulant child "you're not laughing now" in a room full of adults. Like it or not, Farage is now seen as representative of the majority of Britons. That's shameful.'"
Isn't that what we're seeing with the EU members leaders in their response to us leaving , but with a full room of petulance ?
The thing about Nigel though is that unlike 99% of politicians , he does actually answer a question when asked , I cannot help but like him for that
Perhaps that's what was t the root of my vote , I just have had enough of politicians bull**** both here and from the EU
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