Quote: Mintball "...
The other point is that the apparent severity of the US system appears to do nothing to lower crime levels by acting as a deterrent.'"
We may take issue with the U.S. over aspects of their criminal law system but there is no doubt that a person locked up for 42 years will commit no offences against the public in those 42 years.
I don't accept that severe sentences don't act as a deterrent to at least some people. I think it flies in the face of reason to suggest that. Anyone considering doing an act will, in the majority of cases, have at least some regard for the possible consequences. We pass deterrent sentences in this country too and I simply do not accept that they deter no-one, and are thus entirely pointless.
I am generally against U.S. style draconian sentences but if you consider it from the other end, it is easy to see that deterrence is real and works; by way of example, take the case of shoplifting. This has always been common, but is now literally endemic, costing the economy billions, and has exploded since the effective decriminalisation of the offence. By which i mean, you would have to shoplift to some extremes to actually eventually end up in jail for any length of time, if you ever did. There is thus a very clear connection - people don't have that much fear of getting caught, cos the consequences are not seen as significant.
Another example, from a pickpocketing programme last week. In Spain, if you steal to the value of less than (I think) 100 euro, or something like that, no action against you will be taken. Thus getting caught usually means no more than you will simply be spoken to and moved on. And so pickpocketing is rife. I accept it is rife in other places too, eg London, but being caught pickpocketing in the UK is no big criminal deal for typical cases either, and I reckon any criminal does weigh up - to varying extents - the risk of getting caught (very low), the likely consequence if caught (not much) and the rewards if they get away with it (the ability to get food/drink/drugs which they can't otherwise afford.
I'd be pretty certain that even if possible consequences are ramped up, these can be outweighed if the perceived risk of being caught is low. And it is common to see in cases of serious crimes a belief that the offender was clever enough to get away with it. That obviously waters down the net worth of deterrence.
To prove the point with a simple illustration, people break the speed limit all the time, simply because they are accustomed to always getting away with it. However, put a speed camera up, it WILL act as a deterrent. Almost everyone slows down and goes past at or below the speed limit. Why? Because (a) the risk of detection is very high; and (b) the consequences of being detected (points, fine etc) people don't want. Thus, it is conclusively proved that knowing you are very likely to be caught is part of the picture; but if all that happened was you got a letter pointing out you had been speeding and asking if you'd mind slowing down in future, most people would ignore the camera. Whereas knowing that you'd get points and a fine is an extremely effective deterrent. yes millions are made from speed cameras but still there is no doubt at all that an extremely high percentage of drivers, who are speeding immediately before the camera, brake and pass it below the speed limit.
It's also true that in many cases, and that includes the most serious cases, people lose control and just do what they do in the heat of the moment. Whether anything they previously heard or read or were aware of in the past does or might restrain them from - say - stabbing or shooting somebody when all fired up is debatable.