FORUMS > The Sin Bin > Austerity gone too far? |
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| Quote: Dally "The financial sector does not operate in isolation! The apparent boom in economies was primarily (if not wholly) down to cheap money creating asset price bubbles. The construction of which you speak was the most tangible and obvious example. Eire is the extreme case of its effects - a booming "tiger" economy built on building. I spent half a day in Dublin a couple of years before the collapse and they were all buzzing. When I pointed out the obvious - that there was no need for all these buildings and it would end in tears they didn't seem to see that. In short, the real economy was not in good shape or else all those secured loans could be serviced and the banks would not be shakey now. Your naivety and head-burying is staggering.'"
The economic "boom", as you inaccurately put it, was not wholly or even primarily down to asset price bubbles, and that bubble wasn't solely due to increased money supply.
I didn't speak about any construction, you're confusing me with someone else, in much the same way as you are confusing financial gambling/greed/short-termism in the financial sector as representative of an entire economy.
You spent half a day in Dublin looking at buildings and so worked out the Irish economy would fail? Did you walk back across the Irish Sea too?
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| Quote: cod'ead "Spain and to a lesser extent, Portugal, embarked on a massive construction programme. Most of this construction was apartment and villa developments and strangely enough was funded by Irish banks or funded by Spanish banks on behalf of Irish investors. When the Irish economy (especially the banks) tanked, it led to an emergency stop on the Spanish property market. Couple this with a typical southern European method of conduting business, where 75% of any deal is legitimately declared and 25% is "black money" - i.e. paid in cash. There's no wonder the Spanish economy is in a dire position.
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That was pretty much exactly what happened in Portugal, particularly on The Algarve, I have a friend who operated as an architect designing two, sometimes three huge multi-million euro villas per year on the most expensive strips of land on The Algarve since around 2000, he's pulled back from that business now as the market is completely dead but up to 2008 or so his clientele were 100% British and Irish clients, particularly Irish, and some very famous names too.
I was out there with him last June socialising with one of his Portuguese main contractors and he was speaking of which millionaire pad was up for sale, which one was slashed to half its price (you never see for sale signs on the streets but they are being handled by sales agents), and the fear that the new money being invested on The Algarve now was Russian and former Russian states, the Portuguese don't like the situation, they have traded with the British and Irish for as long as there has been an Algarve and they just don't trust the Russian money but they have very little choice.
There is a new project emerging for my mate later this year and so he's spending more time out there again, I'll be partaking in a little "business trip" of my own in a few weeks time, four days of "research" for paintings which is chargeable on the "other job" business account of course
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Player Coach | 10852 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote: Dally "
The so called "growth" strategy of paying people artificially high wages (often to do artificial jobs) and providing them with easy spending power is what lead to the financial crisis. '"
Really? The financial crisis was caused by 'artificially high wages'? Unless you're talking about the 'artificially high wages' received by the greedy, irresponsible s who made a fortune gambling on sub-prime debt, I must respectfully suggest that you're talking crap.
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International Chairman | 14845 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote: Him " Did you walk back across the Irish Sea too?'"
No, but I walked back.
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| Quote: Him " ...You spent half a day in Dublin looking at buildings and so worked out the Irish economy would fail? ...'"
"It will fail" is Dally's default setting.
Credit where it's due (pun unintended) ... knee-jerk as his judgement was, at least it was better than Osborne's pronouncements that the Irish economy was an example to us all, a shining beacon that we should be praising and following.
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Moderator | 14395 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote: Dally "Why do you say that there is zero chance of us following those countries? Our aggregate debts are higher in percentage terms than those countries. The only reason why we may not is that we have a history of sorting out messes before, via strong government. That said, this crisis is arguably our worst ever. I think I am correct in saying that no country has ever recovered from a situation as bad as ours without an effective collapse in their financial system or decades of stagnation.'"
The differences between us and the other countries are several.
The BofE is willing to act as a lender of last resort which mean it will buy bonds if there is a liquidity shortfall. The other countries don't have that. They have to get a bail out from the ECB which doesn't just happen and so lenders are less willing to hold the debt of these countries and if they are they charge a premium for it.
It is easier for us to service the debt as the interests payments always have been and still are low. A lot of the debt is long term (more than 10 years) so we don't have to find the cash now whereas these countries are in the exact opposite situation (a lot of Greek debt is for just 3 years or less).
Historically we have had even higher levels of national debt relative to GDP. It was something like three times GDP on the 1950's. We didn't go belly up then and so there is confidence the debt is manageable now.
We have much more flexibility than these countries in that we can do stuff like quantitative easing (print money) and devalue the currency.
Therefore the problem isn't that we are in the same boat as these other countries but that despite the advantages all the above gives us in our ability to deal with the current situation the current government has made a total pigs ear out of it.
Despite loads of quantitative easing, lower currency value and virtually no upward pressure on wages they have managed to choke off any demand that would lead to increased taxes, lower benefit bills etc by cutting so fast and deep. Osborne is basically the worst chancellor we have had since the end of the second world war.
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International Chairman | 14845 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote: DaveO "The differences between us and the other countries are several.
The BofE is willing to act as a lender of last resort which mean it will buy bonds if there is a liquidity shortfall. The other countries don't have that. They have to get a bail out from the ECB which doesn't just happen and so lenders are less willing to hold the debt of these countries and if they are they charge a premium for it.
It is easier for us to service the debt as the interests payments always have been and still are low. A lot of the debt is long term (more than 10 years) so we don't have to find the cash now whereas these countries are in the exact opposite situation (a lot of Greek debt is for just 3 years or less).
Historically we have had even higher levels of national debt relative to GDP. It was something like three times GDP on the 1950's. We didn't go belly up then and so there is confidence the debt is manageable now.
We have much more flexibility than these countries in that we can do stuff like quantitative easing (print money) and devalue the currency.
Therefore the problem isn't that we are in the same boat as these other countries but that despite the advantages all the above gives us in our ability to deal with the current situation the current government has made a total pigs ear out of it.
Despite loads of quantitative easing, lower currency value and virtually no upward pressure on wages they have managed to choke off any demand that would lead to increased taxes, lower benefit bills etc by cutting so fast and deep. Osborne is basically the worst chancellor we have had since the end of the second world war.'"
You really think Osborne alone decids such serious policy?
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International Chairman | 14845 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote: El Barbudo "".... it was better than Osborne's pronouncements that the Irish economy was an example to us all, a shining beacon that we should be praising and following.'"
But it seems that many on this thread are still extolling those policies!! After all, it has been said they were great and sustainable until something mysterious happened in "casino" banks (which is, of course, utter tripe) and we should have more borrowing to build more property and thereby grow the economy!
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| Quote: Dally "But it seems that many on this thread are still extolling those policies!! After all, it has been said they were great and sustainable until something mysterious happened in "casino" banks (which is, of course, utter tripe) and we should have more borrowing to build more property and thereby grow the economy!'"
You are falling into the "all borrowing is bad" trap.
That's like letting a burns patient freeze to death.
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| Quote: DaveO "The differences between us and the other countries are several... <[ifollowed by a pretty good summary of what they are[/i>'"
Your patience in explaining is exemplary, would that I had that kind of forbearance.
Quote: DaveO "Osborne is basically the worst chancellor we have had since the end of the second world war.'"
Indeed he is.
Worse than the previously very worst.
He's often derided as not-that-bright but I think he is probably very clever, he actually knows full well what he is doing... and that is the truly worrying part of it all, he is waging class war.
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| Quote: Dally "You really think Osborne alone decids such serious policy?'"
He is the chancellor and whether he does or doesn't decide policy alone he carries the can but I'd be more interested to know if you now understand why we aren't like Greece and Spain. So do you?
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| Quote: El Barbudo "... He's often derided as not-that-bright but I think he is probably very clever, he actually knows full well what he is doing... and that is the truly worrying part of it all, he is waging class war.'"
Absolutely.
The crash/recession proved an absolute gift for them. And with the bulk of the media happy, for equally ideological reasons, to help perpetuate the lies, they've had the opportunity to take a wrecking ball to all that they ideologically hate.
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| Quote: El Barbudo "You are falling into the "all borrowing is bad" trap.
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Ni I'm not. But you do have to onsider, inter alia, your starting position when borrowing, your future earning capacity and what you'll borrow for. in the position the UK is in it's difficult to see an obvious way forward by simply borrowing.
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| Quote: Dally "Ni I'm not. But you do have to onsider, inter alia, your starting position when borrowing, your future earning capacity and what you'll borrow for. in the position the UK is in it's difficult to see an obvious way forward by simply borrowing.'"
I don't know anyone who is suggesting that the 'way forward' is only by borrowing.
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| Quote: Mintball "I don't know anyone who is suggesting that the 'way forward' is only by borrowing.'"
But what are they suggesting? It seems to be Labour soundbites from the telly. What are the proposals?
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