FORUMS > The Sin Bin > Brexit Anyone ? (part 3) |
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| Can see it being either a softer Brexit now or another referendum. Another referendum doesn't get me feeling very enthusiastic.
I can see MPs going for the Norway model.
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| Quote: tigertot "As you will be aware, the vast majority of those wanting another referendum do so because the country is now more aware of the implications of leaving. If the vote was to leave, providing the leave campaign wasn't illegally bankrolled again, there could be no complaints over the result.
Whereas leaving without reconsidering is like going to Dignitas because you think you have a fatal illness, but once in Switzerland finding out you are actually ok, but you go ahead with it anyway no matter how ill informed you were originally.'"
What would you want the question to be on the ballot paper for the second referendum
May's deal
No deal
Miracle deal
Remain
You say there could be no complaints about the result but, if it remained close (in either direction) NOTHING would be solved.
I voted remain and still believe this to be the best position for the UK. However, Mrs May should have gathered ALL of the support in Parliament immediately after the referendum and found the best way forward, through consensus.
Instead, right from the start, she insisted on doing it her way, without taking opinion from others.
First of all she should resign and then the new PM, either through a GE or elected within the Tories has to "beg" for an extension to article 50.
Although you speak about people now being better informed and I fuly agree with you on this, those that voted leave have become far more entrenched in their views and nowhere is there any evidence of a significant in public opinion.
Finally, the "peoples vote" campaign is being driven by the "remain" side to keep us in the EU and whilst I would happily remain, there is something fundamentally wrong in driving this agenda (unless public opinion had moved significantly since the original vote).
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| Quote: wrencat1873 "What would you want the question to be on the ballot paper for the second referendum
May's deal
No deal
Miracle deal
Remain
'"
Unless Parliament can agree a consensus on what Leave we were voting for it would have to be ;
Remain
Leave - If Leave
-Option 1 hard Brexit
-Option 2 soft Brexit (to be defined in advance)
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simpsons/simp006.gif :simpsons/simp006.gif |
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| Quote: tigertot "Unless Parliament can agree a consensus on what Leave we were voting for it would have to be ;
Remain
Leave - If Leave
-Option 1 hard Brexit
-Option 2 soft Brexit (to be defined in advance)'"
And would you count both lots of leave votes together or have "we" split the leave vote to help a remain outcome
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755_1290430740.jpg “At last, a real, Tory budget,” Daily Mail 24/9/22
"It may be that the honourable gentleman doesn't like mixing with his own side … but we on this side have a more convivial, fraternal spirit." Jacob Rees-Mogg 21/10/21
A member of the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_755.jpg |
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| As much as I would like the latter that would be difficult to get past even the thickest Leaver. Which is why I didn't put 3 straight options.
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simpsons/simp006.gif :simpsons/simp006.gif |
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| Quote: tigertot "As much as I would like the latter that would be difficult to get past even the thickest Leaver. Which is why I didn't put 3 straight options.'"
That's fine but how would you then collate the results.
Lets say, for the sake of arguement that everyones opinion stayed the same and leave vote was roughly down the middle, we therefore have
48 % Remain
26 % Leave (hard brexit)
26% Leave (soft Brexit)
What do we do next
If we go to a second referendum, it should only be Leave with no deal (WTO terms) or leave with Customs deal.
Granted, there would be plenty of folk that dont quite understand the question but, hey ho, that's life.
Or, better still, our elected members of parliament have the same vote, which would bring the issue to a conclusion, albeit with a number of unhappy MP's and unhappy voters but, again, that's life and just to help make things simple, it should be declared a "free vote". Problem solved and let's get on with our lives.
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755_1290430740.jpg “At last, a real, Tory budget,” Daily Mail 24/9/22
"It may be that the honourable gentleman doesn't like mixing with his own side … but we on this side have a more convivial, fraternal spirit." Jacob Rees-Mogg 21/10/21
A member of the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_755.jpg |
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| Quote: wrencat1873 "That's fine but how would you then collate the results.
Lets say, for the sake of arguement that everyones opinion stayed the same and leave vote was roughly down the middle, we therefore have
48 % Remain
26 % Leave (hard brexit)
26% Leave (soft Brexit)
What do we do next
'"
But it's not round numbers is it? The Remain/Thicko vote last time wasn't 48%/52%, it was 16,141,241/17,410,742. The referendum wasn't cancelled in case there was a dead heat. The chances of it happening are minuscule.
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simpsons/simp006.gif :simpsons/simp006.gif |
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| Quote: tigertot "But it's not round numbers is it? The Remain/Thicko vote last time wasn't 48%/52%, it was 16,141,241/17,410,742. The referendum wasn't cancelled in case there was a dead heat. The chances of it happening are minuscule.'"
The point I'm making is that, given your 3 questions, the lleave vote would be split (and whether their 52 ?? was split equally or by another way) it would mean that "remain" would have the highest percentage.
So, what then Sherlock ?
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33809_1522680904.png 'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_33809.png |
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| We clearly need to adopt a 'make your own adventure' approach to any second referendum. If my ballot is less than 200 pages long and I can complete it in under 3 hours, there is clearly be something wrong.
We've boxed ourselves in - all options are infeasible.
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| Quote: Mild Rover "We clearly need to adopt a 'make your own adventure' approach to any second referendum. If my ballot is less than 200 pages long and I can complete it in under 3 hours, there is clearly be something wrong.
We've boxed ourselves in - all options are infeasible.'"
Just take the lid off the box and maybe put Boris, Rees Mogg and Corbyn in there, oh and Mrs May, then put the lid back on
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438_1551258406.jpg "If you start listening to the fans it won't be long before you're sitting with them," - Wayne Bennett.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_438.jpg |
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| It appears to me that whatever the Government wants is quick becoming irrelevant since their red lines prevent any kind of compromise across Parliament. The hard Brexit mob prefer “no deal” or at the very least no customs union and no single market and no Irish backstop. This approach is tying the hands of Government who can’t get anything through unless the whole party and the DUP back it. The chances of them all agreeing a solution are nil. Meanwhile the Labour leadership have been trying to ride a number of different horses at the same time and options are quickly running out.
MPs from all parties however could gather enough numbers to outnumber the hard Brexit mob, government and Labour leadership and pick off members of the cabinet if they can agree a common compromise. That can come in stages via amendments. I can see MPs coalescing around a Norway option as it avoids the risks and divisions of another referendum. In my view it’s not as good as remain but it gives MPs a get out clause over calling another referendum, safeguards the economy and draws a line under the whole shambles. While the Government is unlikely to extend A50 or rule out no deal Parliament can do that. The hard Brexit mob aren’t large enough to force through no deal – it might be on the statute now but I doubt it’ll be there come 29 March.
It’ll be interesting to see if the softer Brexit members of the cabinet or Labour leadership get behind a compromise as the clock ticks.
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755_1290430740.jpg “At last, a real, Tory budget,” Daily Mail 24/9/22
"It may be that the honourable gentleman doesn't like mixing with his own side … but we on this side have a more convivial, fraternal spirit." Jacob Rees-Mogg 21/10/21
A member of the Guardian-reading, tofu-eating wokerati.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_755.jpg |
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| Quote: wrencat1873 "The point I'm making is that, given your 3 questions, the lleave vote would be split (and whether their 52 ?? was split equally or by another way) it would mean that "remain" would have the highest percentage.
So, what then Sherlock ?'"
If the Leave vote is 52% we leave. On what terms depends on the voting for the 2 sub-options within the option. I can't understand why it is difficult to comprehend.
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icons077e_files/5454-3678dentheman-msnicons.jpg Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.:icons077e_files/5454-3678dentheman-msnicons.jpg |
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| There is nothing out there in any polls to suggest the result would be any different this time around - the likelihood is a increase for leave due to many thinking Parliament has its own agenda i.e. remain and the vote of the people is being ignored. Even the arch remainers have to accept there was as much negative propaganda from the remain side i.e. the economy will implode, taxation will immediately need to be increased etc. The problem for remain was the public didn't believe it and that has proved to be correct.
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| Quote: Sal Paradise "There is nothing out there in any polls to suggest the result would be any different this time around - the likelihood is a increase for leave due to many thinking Parliament has its own agenda i.e. remain and the vote of the people is being ignored. Even the arch remainers have to accept there was as much negative propaganda from the remain side i.e. the economy will implode, taxation will immediately need to be increased etc. The problem for remain was the public didn't believe it and that has proved to be correct.'"
I agree with what you're saying apart from every single word.
Latest polling consistently shows a lead for remaining in the EU so presumably you made that up. Seriously, 30 seconds on google will disabuse you of that notion. At no point in the run up to the referendum did remain have a lead in the polls of the magnitude they do today, so there is no evidence to suggest an increased share for the quitlings.
You've similarly wholly invented a world were the economic harm, major firms leaving the UK and job losses failed to materialise as predicted. So on that basis the remainers aren't going to "have to accept" the sort of intellectual rigor behind the "la la la I can't hear you" mentality that leads you to label sensible economic analysis as "propaganda".
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33809_1522680904.png 'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_33809.png |
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| The problem for remainers is that we lost.
The problem for leavers is that they won. Its leaders want to be matyred heroes for a lost cause, not actually take responsibility for the thing. That’s why they’re moving towards harder options despite May serving up the vast majority of what they wanted.
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