Probably a lot - but thats the whole point of the risk here. These are people who are vulnerable.

I think there will be some "displacement" in the death count of people who would have died of other causes (eg terminal illnesses) but who die sooner because of complications from coronavirus and they will be in the coronavirus tallies. If this is true then we may see some offsetting fall in the numbers of people recorded as dying of other causes, during this pandemic.

But there will also likely be a rise in death rate to other things than coronavirus, because the health service is fully occupied, so things that may have been treatable otherwise will not be.

To get a true estimate of the impact of coronavirus you'd need to look at the aggregate death rate (broken down by age) for all causes, and see how much it varies in 2020/21 from the normal trend.

Spain has only just instituted a lock down you muppet, of course it won't have turned the corner yet. Is your argument really that you don't think a lock down will reduce infection rates/flatten the curve? Really?

We are following the American model of minimum testing therefore our death rate will be higher. The reasons are obvious the more tests will increase the number with the virus but the death rate will not change.
We are currently nor testing those in the NHS who have to self isolate and are now no longer providing full protection wear in some trusts. I would say therefore that Raab is not doing such a good job and the years of under funding are now catching up with them but sadly also increases the chance of unnecessary deaths.

Not at all - there is a difference between infection and death and surely there is a trade off. Do we spread the infection amongst the general population who let's face will for the most part get a mild reaction and build up some immunity whilst isolating the vulnerable or lock down the whole country which will provide a temporary reprieve but build up no immunity?

Like you I am not a virologist so we have to follow the guidance - the question is - is it the lockdown that is slowing number or the natural lifespan/build up of immunity that is slowing the numbers down?

It's the lockdown. HTH.

You must be right - well in your own head

I bow to your superior knowledge.

At last a sensible post

Quote The Ghost of '99="The Ghost of '99"God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious. Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag. https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/'" Do you still think lock down in Italy is still working - i.e. numbers are reducing? Yesterday deaths reached 475 in a single day - the highest yet!! I suggested you haven't got a clue what you are talking about - seems the official data you love so much backs up my synopsis - you really haven't got a clue.

Quote The Ghost of '99="The Ghost of '99"God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious. Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag. https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/'" Do you still think lock down in Italy is still working - i.e. numbers are reducing? Yesterday deaths reached 475 in a single day - the highest yet!! I suggested you haven't got a clue what you are talking about - seems the official data you love so much backs up my synopsis - you really haven't got a clue.

Yesterdays deaths will be an indication of what the number of people getting infected was 14 to 17 days ago, given thats the average time between infection and death.

To see whether the lock down is working you need to look at whether the rate of growth is slowing down, not just the absolute numbers.

You should try it sometimes

I read they had based the initial slowdown lockdown model on a 5 to 10 day time delay, but are now hoping the actual slowdown comes after 14-21 days