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International Star | 18001 | Wakefield Trinity |
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| Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"£ is now at c1.20 euro that what it was a two years ago and better than it was three years ago so it could be inflation will fall back especially if oil pricing stabilises.
Given that most banks aren't into giving business overdrafts not a lot, the borrowing will be in the form of loans at fixed interest rates so an increase in interest rates will not impact their existing exposure what it might do is make them consider future borrowing more carefully. You would hope most business will have made hay whilst the sun shines.
Interest rates on ID facilities and the likes are pretty competitive - lots of players out there - pretty secure lending as most debtors will pay up even if you go bust and they will only lend you 90% of the book less if they think matters are looking grim - low risk low rates.'"
What about personal debt, which is at record levels ?
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Club Captain | 1401 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote wrencat1873="wrencat1873"What about personal debt, which is at record levels ?'"
The Government don't apply for credit or force people to sign contracts.
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International Chairman | 14845 | No Team Selected |
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Dec 2001 | 23 years | |
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| Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"Complete rubbish - low interest only reduce investment returns if you stick the money in the bank. Invested correctly in capital projects low interest rates give very interesting investment opportunities. As a business we can borrow any amount we want at 1.4% over base - guess what we have borrowed substantial sums and invested in a variety of projects which we would not otherwise have as low interest rates shorten ROI time frames considerably
Young people can buy property in a host of places - plenty of cheap property in Bradford, Wakefield, Halifax, Oldham, Rochdale etc. Yes they may not be able to buy in London or Cornwall but there are plenty of places young people can afford to live the fact they choose not to is a different matter'"
Let's look at the facts:
A solid, balanced portfolio aimed at generating a sustainable income would yield 3%, one aimed at capital growth perhaps 1.8%. These are pathetic yields in historic terms, especially with inflation running at 2.3% and expected to edge up to c.3% by the end of the year.
The growth in the UK economy has been fuelled by consumer-spending not investment by businesses. With inflation now matching wage growth and inflation projected to increase through the year that source of growth looks like disappearing (maybe why May has called an election, before it hits the fan?).
There is a lack of business investment on both the manufacturing and service sectors (at lowest levels since the 2008-2010 crash period). Weakness projected to continue due to Brexit concerns.
High household debt - unsecured lending at highest level since 2006 (pre-crash).
Only one thing is certain about debt - whether for "business growth" or otherwise - it has to be repaid and often when times are harder than when borrowed. Also with interest rates at all time lows, will growth cover an increase to say a 10% rate or even 5% base rate?
All cheap money does is create asset price bubbles - whether property, shares, or whatever as its easy to make a quick buck there (before the bubble bursts) than make meaningful business investment that creates real long-term wealth. In a nutshell that is the weakness of the current system, allied to over-paid, weak management in large companies. People who sit on cash piles or return funds to shareholders because they are incapable of investing in future growth opportunities.
You need to visit the opticians to have your rose-tinted specs adjusted.
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International Chairman | 14845 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"I would say there are are millions of people who have a better standard of living than they did in 2008 - anyone who has had any kind of career development and there will be millions will be in a better position than they were in 2008.
'"
You may say millions are better off but this article from 6 months ago (which seems to be built on more than "I would say") suggests otherwise. It also addresses your GDP miracle. Please note than since that article was written real wages growth has declined (see my previous post).
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International Chairman | 14845 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"£ is now at c1.20 euro that what it was a two years ago and better than it was three years ago so it could be inflation will fall back especially if oil pricing stabilises.
Given that most banks aren't into giving business overdrafts not a lot, the borrowing will be in the form of loans at fixed interest rates so an increase in interest rates will not impact their existing exposure what it might do is make them consider future borrowing more carefully. You would hope most business will have made hay whilst the sun shines.
Interest rates on ID facilities and the likes are pretty competitive - lots of players out there - pretty secure lending as most debtors will pay up even if you go bust and they will only lend you 90% of the book less if they think matters are looking grim - low risk low rates.'"
What has the £ / € ex rate to do with the inflation rate?
As to loans - usually expressed as a % above base or LIBOR and so rates do increase with interest rate rises. Even if genuinely fixed at some point they will need renegotiating when conditions and rates are likely to be significantly different.
Low rates and cheap money creating big debts are what caused the 2008 crash. There has been more of the same since and it is likely than the next downturn will be a depression rather than recession. Maybe that's why there is so much warmongering going on at present?
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Player Coach | 11757 | No Team Selected |
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Jul 2007 | 18 years | |
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| Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"Corbyn would be a disaster as a PM - he would do what most Labour governments do tax heavily - and McDonald has already hinted at that anyone on >70k he considers rich and they will be taxed accordingly which must include himself!! - spend on the most inefficient sector i.e. the public sector. He will bring in a maximum earning level which will result in an exodus of talent. You will see the rise of union power once again. If he thinks he can take on the corporates and beat them he really is delusional.
Welcome to the world of theoretical Socialism!! It doesn't work it never has and it never will'"
The only reason why 70k doesn’t go far in this country is because everything is overpriced and the corporates need to be held accountable for ripping everyone off. When it is cheaper to get a flight into mainland Europe than it is to get a train from Leeds to London then something needs to change. Taxpayers would get much better value for money if the railways were nationalised and the heavier tax will be worth it because we will all get better services again.
Parts of the private sector can be just as inefficient as some of the public sector. The private sector does not have a monopoly on efficiency. In the space of a week my complaint recently went from a senior customer service manager to a national manager and a national team manager. How many managers does this private company need to deal with complaints?
The exodus of talent is already happening with many quitting vital jobs over here to get a fairer deal abroad. Brexit has been handled disastrously under the conservatives and more jobs are set to go if they’re re-elected and follow through with a hard Brexit.
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International Chairman | 9565 | No Team Selected |
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| Isn't Corbyn now making noises that he won't quit, even if Labour get smashed - at least long enough to change the rules again to make it harder for the Parliamentary party to dominate selections for leadership positions. If ever you wanted evidence that to Jeremy and his mates all that matters is control of the party and not winning an election, there it is.
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| If Corbyn gets out, meets people, gets on the megaphone and uses a massive social media he can will this election. He just needs one hook to engage people. With a Trump it was controversial comments that caused the tweeting idiots faux outrage. That gave him the oxygen of publicity to invigorate a leadership campaign that was going nowhere fast.
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International Chairman | 18094 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote Dally="Dally"What has the £ / € ex rate to do with the inflation rate?
As to loans - usually expressed as a % above base or LIBOR and so rates do increase with interest rate rises. Even if genuinely fixed at some point they will need renegotiating when conditions and rates are likely to be significantly different.
Low rates and cheap money creating big debts are what caused the 2008 crash. There has been more of the same since and it is likely than the next downturn will be a depression rather than recession. Maybe that's why there is so much warmongering going on at present?'"
Most loans are at an agreed rate for the term of the loan at its inception - otherwise how can you plan an investment if you don't actually know the cost of the funding? Overdrafts are obviously a different matter as is an ID facility which appears to have replaced a lot of overdrafts these days.
Given we import far more than we export I would the exchange rate of the £ wil have a huge impact on the rate of inflation - would you not agree?
What caused the crash was a sector of business that could not be allowed to go bust i.e. banking. Most commercial businesses would have simply gone out of business and there would not have been the need to bail them out. Banks knew they had a get out of jail card no matter how they behaved - which was appallingly and most of the directors should have been struck off IMO.
Personal debt is too high I would agree with you but there will be a balancing of this as its part of cycle. As soon as interest rates increase even by 1/2% demand for new borrowing will decrease it is just a question of time
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Player Coach | 4655 | Wakefield Trinity |
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Mar 2010 | 15 years | |
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| Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"What caused the crash was a sector of business that could not be allowed to go bust i.e. banking. Most commercial businesses would have simply gone out of business and there would not have been the need to bail them out. Banks knew they had a get out of jail card no matter how they behaved - which was appallingly and most of the directors should have been struck off IMO.'"
When the bubble burst in 2008 there should have been an example made and it should have been 'day zero'. Instead the bubble was patched up and re-inflated to carry on with this ponzi scheme circus of an economy.
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International Chairman | 14845 | No Team Selected |
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| Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"
Given we import far more than we export I would the exchange rate of the £ wil have a huge impact on the rate of inflation - would you not agree?'"
You mentioned specifically the Euro rate rather than, say, the dollar rate. The stuff we buy from Europe can be substituted e.g. German cars for British made ones, fancy food and wines from other places, etc. So no specific need to impact on inflation, other than via business supply chains, which again could generally be substituted over time.
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International Star | 18001 | Wakefield Trinity |
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Apr 2011 | 14 years | |
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| Quote Dally="Dally"You mentioned specifically the Euro rate rather than, say, the dollar rate. The stuff we buy from Europe can be substituted e.g. German cars for British made ones, fancy food and wines from other places, etc. So no specific need to impact on inflation, other than via business supply chains, which again could generally be substituted over time.'"
Have you not seen the value of the £ against the $.
1.43 last Jan to 1.24 today, a 17/18% drop ??
Although suppliers can close their eyes in the short term, these changes have a direct effect on the cost of goods that we all buy on the high street.
On the flip side, a weak currency certainly helps exports.
If only we had a strong manufacturing sector in the UK.................
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