FORUMS > The Sin Bin > Scottish Referendum |
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| Quote: Lord Elpers "The difference in this referendum is that each vote counts equally.
May 2010 general election in Scotland
Conservatives - 412,855 votes
That 2010 General election vote doesn't mirror the 2011 Scottish vote, so it tells us nothing.
What it does tell us is why Labour didn't want boundary changes so that constituencies had an equal number of voters.
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| Quote: LeagueDweeb "That 2010 General election vote doesn't mirror the 2011 Scottish vote, so it tells us nothing.
What it does tell us is why Labour didn't want boundary changes so that constituencies had an equal number of voters.'"
It does tell us something. It tells us that the Scots are happy to change how they vote depending on the nature of the election. Which might mean that the pollsters have got their opinion polls all to cock.
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| Quote: Cibaman "It does tell us something. It tells us that the Scots are happy to change how they vote depending on the nature of the election. Which might mean that the pollsters have got their opinion polls all to cock.'"
My comment was relating to the use of the 2010 general election result being some sort of guide for the level of support for the SNP, which I then qualified by pointing at the Scottish election.
Voting at local & national level often does change, nothing new there.
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| Quote: LeagueDweeb "The 2011 Parliament Act does not permit the changing of an election date from the fixed five year term. Parliament can be dissolved early, but not extended.'"
You need to read the article and the many others that are available, it would take an Act of Parliament but it took an Act of Parliament to establish the rule in the first place, its not like they don't know how to do it or that it would be impossible to do.
The fact that they were leaking the information to the press last week shows how hard they have hit the panic button, I'm guessing that there is a Prime Minister somewhere in this land who won't sleep a wink tonight.
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| Quote: Lord Elpers "Three actually 1964, 1974 & 2010'"
Did I miss something?
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| Quote: LeagueDweeb "The 2011 Parliament Act does not permit the changing of an election date from the fixed five year term. Parliament can be dissolved early, but not extended.'"
And Acts of Parliament can be amended...
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| Quote: LeagueDweeb "My comment was relating to the use of the 2010 general election result being some sort of guide for the level of support for the SNP, which I then qualified by pointing at the Scottish election.
Voting at local & national level often does change, nothing new there.'"
My point was that the pollsters are using the 2011 Scottish election results as the baseline for their referendum polling samples, as of course there are no previous referendum results to use. Which inevitably introduces a greater margin of error in the results. It might not be as close as is being predicted.
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Club Owner | 17898 | |
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Oct 2003 | 21 years | |
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| Quote: Big Graeme "And Acts of Parliament can be amended...'"
Just because you say it can, doesn't mean it can...
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| Quote: LeagueDweeb "My comment was relating to the use of the 2010 general election result being some sort of guide for the level of support for the SNP, which I then qualified by pointing at the Scottish election.
Voting at local & national level often does change, nothing new there.'"
I'd be a little careful making assumptions on polling methods if I were you, a previous poster made an are of himself on opinion polls
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| With the declaration of Fife at 06:10, the result is a win for the no campaign
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| Quote: JerryChicken "You need to read the article and the many others that are available, it would take an Act of Parliament but it took an Act of Parliament to establish the rule in the first place, its not like they don't know how to do it or that it would be impossible to do.
The fact that they were leaking the information to the press last week shows how hard they have hit the panic button, I'm guessing that there is a Prime Minister somewhere in this land who won't sleep a wink tonight.'"
The 2011 Parliament Act cannot be changed or amended until at least 2020, when there will be an analysis of how it has worked sine it was introduced.
It would be constitutionally & logistically impossible to get any Bill through Parliament before the 2015 GE.
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| Quote: Big Graeme "And Acts of Parliament can be amended...'"
Yes they can. However if you look into it, you will realise this cannot be done in relation to the 2011 Parliament Act at this present time.
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Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 322 | No Team Selected |
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May 2014 | 11 years | |
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Sep 2014 | Sep 2014 | LINK |
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| Quote: Big Graeme "I'd be a little careful making assumptions on polling methods if I were you, a previous poster made an are of himself on opinion polls'"
No assumptions were made, nor were polling methods discussed. Hope this helps.
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Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 322 | No Team Selected |
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May 2014 | 11 years | |
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| The expected No has prevailed.
Would be interesting to see if there is any correlation between postal votes & the wider margins in some areas, and if those who had postal votes had been able to take in the latter two weeks of campaigning.
Notable that the Labour stronghold of Glasgow voted Yes.
28-4 tells it owns story, but the lone Tory MP who was backing the No campaign was keen to point out that they actually got over 400,000 votes in 2010. They Yes campaign got under 400,000 fewer than No.
UKIP will have a field day against both the Tories & Labour in the lead up to 2015.
Douglas Alexander gave it away last night that Labour won't address the West Lothian question, John Reid the same. Strangely Menzies Campbell went along with the English Parliament idea.
Cameron is really under the cosh. Has to be seen to get a formalised offer on the table by the end of February, has to handle a backbench rebellion on not answering the WL question & move to an English Parliament which he does not want. Has to make sure he is seen to properly deal with the devolution promise. Has to deal with the EU referendum question which UKIP will push even harder now the SNP has delivered on it's manifesto promise.
Going to be a fascinating next few months for the political class to navigate it's way through.
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| Quote: LeagueDweeb "Yes they can. However if you look into it, you will realise this cannot be done in relation to the 2011 Parliament Act at this present time.'"
Well the party that brought it in are hardly going to try to introduce legislation to change it in the same Parliament. Who knows what will happen after the 2015 election though?
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