The problem I hope for Trump is that they have actually seen him at work, rather than purely based on what he says before an election.

Trump expected to declare national emergency over coronavirus.

But I thought it was a liberal hoax? I thought the US were doing just great?

These tinpot leaders can lie all they want about jobs, the economoy, trade, and immigration, but when people start panicking, getting sick and dying from a virus, there's only so many porkies you can tell before your cover's very quickly blown.

Boris is not everyone's cup of tea but his handling of Covid19 has been very good - he has got the tone just about right

Boris' response has probably shown a big difference between him and Trump.

When Boris was London Mayor one of the things that got said about him was that he was by nature a delegator. He doesn't have the delusion that Trump does that he's an all-knowing genius. Hence his reliance on Dominic Cummings for general policy strategy.

With this crisis, Boris has at least recognised his limitations and brought experts with him to the press conferences. But like you say he has struck the right tone, he hasn't tried to be political or overly bombastic, and he has largely deferred to the experts without looking like he's shoving the blame on to them.

I think he's done OK, he's clearly uncomfortable in this kind of situation as he is more in his element doing the "pumping up the nations' spirits" talk rather than dealing with matters as serious as this, some of his phrasing has been a bit bumbling but overall I think he's been OK.

Trump on the other hand is a complete disaster, it is apparent that he doesn't know what he is doing and I'm sure this is making the panic worse especially on the stock markets.

Obama would have stood up to the plate and given leadership to the world, and Trump and the Republicans would have been sniping from the outside. They are like rabbits in the headlights when the responsibility is on them.

Johnson isn’t my cup of tea, but I agree he’s done okay. It’s impossible to know what is the best course of action, and that’d apply to any leader, but the tone is serious enough without being too panicky, and the plan seems a reasonable best guess.

For now we’re all on the same side. Hopefully it’ll pass without too much pain and loss and we can get back to our gammon-snowflake mutual loathing soon!

Hancock has gone up in my estimation - he has handled this really well. Whatever the government do it will not be right for all people. In Italy and Spain they have locked everything down doesn't seem to have slowed the infections/deaths any? We still have to be able to function the country simply cannot come to grinding halt surely?

As for the elderly the government is between a rock and a hard place - isolate them and they will suffer mentally and physically - do nothing and there is a potential for an increase in the death-rate?

Difficult to know what would have happened, and how much faster the spread, if they’d taken a different approach.

Everybody’s trying their best and having to make it up as they go along.

Absolutely agree - the government is doing its best

Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"Hancock has gone up in my estimation - he has handled this really well. Whatever the government do it will not be right for all people. In Italy and Spain they have locked everything down doesn't seem to have slowed the infections/deaths any? We still have to be able to function the country simply cannot come to grinding halt surely? '" God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious. Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag. https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/

Quote Sal Paradise="Sal Paradise"Hancock has gone up in my estimation - he has handled this really well. Whatever the government do it will not be right for all people. In Italy and Spain they have locked everything down doesn't seem to have slowed the infections/deaths any? We still have to be able to function the country simply cannot come to grinding halt surely? '" God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious. Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag. https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/

Quote The Ghost of '99="The Ghost of '99"God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious. Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag. https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/'" Your report also says there is significant missing data - so it could actually be rising - nothing new from you there - the all seeing eye - I know more than everyone else Shame your posts don't back up your arrogance. Notice you didn't mention Spain - not support your argument I guess?

Quote The Ghost of '99="The Ghost of '99"God it's irritating when people think they know everything based on zero evidence or expertise. It's Brexit summed up but this is probably even more serious. Your comments about Italy are, of course, factually incorrect - Italy is turning the corner and the rates are slowing. I know you're smart enough not to believe this is some sort of switch you can flick and expect results with no time lag. https://kalingatv.com/world/italy-coron ... med-cases/'" Your report also says there is significant missing data - so it could actually be rising - nothing new from you there - the all seeing eye - I know more than everyone else Shame your posts don't back up your arrogance. Notice you didn't mention Spain - not support your argument I guess?

Other than in the countries where they have comprehensive testing (S Korea, China etc) the data on caseload is likely to be inaccurate because it completely depends on the country's testing criteria.

If they are only testing a certain sub population - those who end up in hospital or who have recently travelled back from an infected region (which is now basically everywhere) then once it becomes widespread, the official figures on cases will not be an accurate measure of the underlying caseload in the population.

But if the mortality rate from the disease (whatever it is) stays constant over time, you can use the number of deaths announced per day as a way to infer what is happening with the underlying caseload. If the average time from showing symptoms till death is 14 to 17 days, then the number of patients that die today tells you something about what the underlying caseload was 14 to 17 days ago.

The mortality rate may not stay totally constant over time - once the case load reaches a level where the health service is over capacity the mortality rate will rise and when it falls below that level it should fall down again. But it may be reasonable to assume these as one-off shifts at certain points, rather than the mortality rate varying a lot over time.

So to track the effectiveness of distancing measures brought in, look at what happens to daily deaths in about 2 to 3 weeks after they were brought in. What you hope to see is some change - if not a fall in absolute terms, at least a levelling off of the rate of growth, which suggests you've got it under control.

As we are still in the early stages this might be a 'noisy' indicator in that from day to day the numbers might bounce around a lot and also there will be some patients who became sick in the early stages and who have been in ICU for a long time and ultimately die several weeks later, so for a few weeks there will still be some deaths from the 'pre-measures' point, coming up in the daily death rates.

I think we should expect to see some very sharp rises in the daily death rates in the next couple of weeks, which will be alarming, but if the growth rate starts to fall after that, even if the deaths keep rising, that will suggest that the measures are starting to work, and should hopefully level off, and then start falling.

How many of these unfortunate deaths would have occurred anyway if they had got a particular strain of the flu? I agree we will see some escalation in the numbers over the next week.