FORUMS > The Sin Bin > Brexit Anyone? (part 4) |
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| Quote: wotsupcas "There you go with the insults again. Why do you in the remain camp think you are so intellectually superior to brexiteers? . Where did I say I want a hard brexit. I want to leave with a GOOD deal. However just about the only thing May said in this whole fiasco that I agreed with is that no deal is better than the turd she tried to serve up to us. I happen to think that the threat of no deal will achieve that but I admit that time is now very pressing but at least the EU know we are serious, unlike with May.'"
You say that the EU know that "we are serious" but, Boris & co still havent come up with an alternative to the Irish Backstop and they've had 3 years to think of something and tbf to the EU, what do we actually expect them to do ?
Leave the Irish border open but, somehow prevent the movement of people and goods accross the border or just turn a blind eye to anything that moves in Ireland.
If you know of a viable plan, perhaps you could share it with us and perhaps copy in Boris nd Junker with your answer.
Even if "no deal" is the answer, all that "we" have come up with is that "we" wont erect a hard border but, with no actual solution, absolutely disgraceful.
Some of these issues should have been thought about (and solved) pre referendum, although Cameron never thought that there would be a leave result
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| Quote: wotsupcas "There you go with the insults again. Why do you in the remain camp think you are so intellectually superior to brexiteers? . Where did I say I want a hard brexit. I want to leave with a GOOD deal. However just about the only thing May said in this whole fiasco that I agreed with is that no deal is better than the turd she tried to serve up to us. I happen to think that the threat of no deal will achieve that but I admit that time is now very pressing but at least the EU know we are serious, unlike with May.'"
Please explain what a GOOD deal is. And what are you going to get that will make your life better?
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| Quote: tigertot "Please explain what a GOOD deal is. And what are you going to get that will make your life better?'"
Something very similar to the common market. You know, the thing we actually voted for in 1975.
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| Quote: The Ghost of '99 "I'm genuinely a bit embarrassed for you that you're so unfamiliar with the benefits system and so lacking in empathy to find out or even care, that you think this is how it works.
Honestly, step out into reality once in a while. At the moment you're coming across like a parody of a Tory voter.'"
Come on then how does it work and how do you qualify for benefits - is it based on your income?
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| Quote: wrencat1873 "Oh dear, missing the point again
I agree with your point in respect of benefits and the corporate businesses - if you put the minimum wage up to say £15/hour what is going to happen? One of two things - companies that cannot pass on these increases or reduce other costs to compensate will go to the wall and unemployment will increase or they will simply pass on these increases and inflation will rise. It is a balance that any government has to achieve for wider benefit of society.
I don't see rampant inflation despite the collapse of the pound against other major currencies - why is that?
Forecasted UK growth is 1-2% compound until 2023 whilst this is not China numbers it is significantly outside of recession.
In Maynard Keynes model recession happens approximately every 10 years - its a fact that's why politicians accept it its the norm.
What is happening here is the likes of you cannot accept that some people don't think like you and more people didn't think like you than did when it came to the referendum. All this stuff about no deal is not about no deal it is about keeping the UK in the EU because in their eyes and yours they/you know best and anybody who doesn't agree should be disregarded. We can't leave without a deal yet we can't get a deal that is acceptable what does that tell you - the MPs will make it impossible for us to leave.
Guarantee if we have another referendum - the options wont be leave regardless of deal i.e. no deal and remain. It will set up with 3 options two leave options and remain and the two leave options will not be added together. We will keep voting until remain wins.
Nobody actually knows what will happen when/if we leave everything is conjecture - it could actually be worse that suggested?
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| Quote: Sal Paradise "I agree with your point in respect of benefits and the corporate businesses - if you put the minimum wage up to say £15/hour what is going to happen? One of two things - companies that cannot pass on these increases or reduce other costs to compensate will go to the wall and unemployment will increase or they will simply pass on these increases and inflation will rise. It is a balance that any government has to achieve for wider benefit of society.
I don't see rampant inflation despite the collapse of the pound against other major currencies - why is that?
Forecasted UK growth is 1-2% compound until 2023 whilst this is not China numbers it is significantly outside of recession.
In Maynard Keynes model recession happens approximately every 10 years - its a fact that's why politicians accept it its the norm.
What is happening here is the likes of you cannot accept that some people don't think like you and more people didn't think like you than did when it came to the referendum. All this stuff about no deal is not about no deal it is about keeping the UK in the EU because in their eyes and yours they/you know best and anybody who doesn't agree should be disregarded. We can't leave without a deal yet we can't get a deal that is acceptable what does that tell you - the MPs will make it impossible for us to leave.
Guarantee if we have another referendum - the options wont be leave regardless of deal i.e. no deal and remain. It will set up with 3 options two leave options and remain and the two leave options will not be added together. We will keep voting until remain wins.
Nobody actually knows what will happen when/if we leave everything is conjecture - it could actually be worse that suggested?'"
I'll take it as red that there is no solution for the Irish border, which does make a "deal" or "no deal extremely difficult
Growth forecasts were scaled back to between 1.2 and 1.5% for this year. However, this was based on the UK getting a deal and they will be further revised down should a deal not be forthcoming. Also worth noting that we've already had one negative quarter and the current quarter isn't exactly looking buoyant, therefore quite likely that we are already in recession, which will be confirmed when the quarterly figures become available.
0.5% growth in Q1, followed by -0.2% in Q2 is bloody awful and large numbers of businesses are currently "sitting on their hands" to await the outcome of Brexit.
One area where I do agree with you is on a second referendum.
Unless there has been a huge swing in either direction, another referendum will just prolong the whole thing and what would be the question on the ballet paper ?
As far as rampant inflation is concerned.
There is certainly inflationary pressure in the system, largely caused by raw material increases and the weak value of Sterling. However, this is offset by the general state of the economy, with companies preferring to absorb just as much of the cost as possible, rather than pass on the change to the consumer but, this isn't sustainable.
Never mind. Maybe it's time to adopt the "brace" position and deal with what comes but, there are a lot of people in for one hell of a shock.
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| Quote: wrencat1873 "Remembering that the MP's have all been on "Summer Recess" and that there are very few sitting days anyway AND with such an important issue to solve, it does set a dangerous precedent.
Having said that, for everyone who is opposed to the idea, there is probably someone who is fairly happy that Boris has done this.
Ultimately, it just shows what an utter facking mess that Mrs May made of her deal.
One worrying aspect of Boris's actions was the smile that it brought to Arlene Fosters face and again, remembering what could happen in N.Ireland, especially around the border towns, we should all be just a little concerned.
Is Brexit worth sacrificing relative peace in N. Ireland - I dont think so'"
Battered wives and husbands won't be happy. The Domestic Abuse Bill 2019 is likely to fall away along with other bills that have not been given Royal ascent.
Boris might be happy about that
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| Quote: wotsupcas "Something very similar to the common market. You know, the thing we actually voted for in 1975.'"
Tbf, that sort of thing is for the future relationship negotiations. It is also fair to say that the backstop issue does muddy those waters, I admit.
They’ll be trickier than the leaving part, although if we have a more united Government with a reasonable working majority by then, that will help. Based on BJ’s smirking schtick about our ‘friends and partners’ in Europe, I suggest Frientrance for the sequel.
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| Quote: Pumpetypump "We need to circumvent democratic institutions and conventions in order to get our democracy back. What part of democracy don't you remoaners understand?'"
I guess both sides can point to a betrayal of democracy now, representative and direct for remainers and brexiteers, respectively. And that, in part, points to a fundamental problem with a democracy based on yes-no. Not that a visual analogue scale or similar would work, as everybody would just game it and we’d be back to square one.
I’d never abandon by credibility by being a stooge for someone like Johnson ( Amber, Matt, Michael, Nicky and Sajid), and in principle i’m absolutely against suspending parliament in these circumstances and for this purpose. But even I have to admit that a parliament that can only say no (as demonstrated by the spectacular failure of the indicative votes) is a problem, and maybe the issue does have to be forced.
I’ve often accused the Brexit side of not having a clear and settled plan, but that is just as true of those uniting around opposition to the poop or bust no deal path Johnson wants to tread. If they stop him, they won’t be able to offer a way forward, except for another vote of some kind. And there’s a hole in our democracy, dear Liza, dear Liza.
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| Quote: wrencat1873 "I'll take it as red that there is no solution for the Irish border, which does make a "deal" or "no deal extremely difficult
Growth forecasts were scaled back to between 1.2 and 1.5% for this year. However, this was based on the UK getting a deal and they will be further revised down should a deal not be forthcoming. Also worth noting that we've already had one negative quarter and the current quarter isn't exactly looking buoyant, therefore quite likely that we are already in recession, which will be confirmed when the quarterly figures become available.
0.5% growth in Q1, followed by -0.2% in Q2 is bloody awful and large numbers of businesses are currently "sitting on their hands" to await the outcome of Brexit.
One area where I do agree with you is on a second referendum.
Unless there has been a huge swing in either direction, another referendum will just prolong the whole thing and what would be the question on the ballet paper ?
As far as rampant inflation is concerned.
There is certainly inflationary pressure in the system, largely caused by raw material increases and the weak value of Sterling. However, this is offset by the general state of the economy, with companies preferring to absorb just as much of the cost as possible, rather than pass on the change to the consumer but, this isn't sustainable.
Never mind. Maybe it's time to adopt the "brace" position and deal with what comes but, there are a lot of people in for one hell of a shock.'"
I have mentioned numerous times on here how it that goods from SE Asia the US, China can move seamlessly across the EU border but all of sudden this will be an issue with these same goods crossing the same the only difference is we are no longer in the EU - surely the technology that allows Apple to bring its computers from SE Asia without delay at the ports can applied once we have left the EU?
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| Quote: Sal Paradise "I have mentioned numerous times on here how it that goods from SE Asia the US, China can move seamlessly across the EU border but all of sudden this will be an issue with these same goods crossing the same the only difference is we are no longer in the EU - surely the technology that allows Apple to bring its computers from SE Asia without delay at the ports can applied once we have left the EU?'"
You're nearly right.
However, there are full border controls for people from outside the EU moving into the EU and it's the same for the movement of goods.
You could argue that it's just a case of getting the relevant paperwork but, there are physical checks for imported goods for the countries that you mention and shipments are usually scanned and occasionally "fully checked" to ensure that the paperwork is in order and again, for people, it's a case of having the right documentation and having border controls where this can be checked and this is THE main issue, especially on the Irish Border.
A fragile peace has been kept in Ireland (with the occasional serious incident) since the Good Friday agreement and "no deal" will see a return to some of the sectarian stuff from the '80's.
Of course this barely got a mention during the referendum but, this was always THE biggest issue and there is still no solution, only the hope that there could be one over the coming few years, which is why the EU insisted on the Backstop, something that Boris is still prepared to pretend doesn't matter.
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| Quote: wrencat1873 "You're nearly right.
However, there are full border controls for people from outside the EU moving into the EU and it's the same for the movement of goods.
You could argue that it's just a case of getting the relevant paperwork but, there are physical checks for imported goods for the countries that you mention and shipments are usually scanned and occasionally "fully checked" to ensure that the paperwork is in order and again, for people, it's a case of having the right documentation and having border controls where this can be checked and this is THE main issue, especially on the Irish Border.
A fragile peace has been kept in Ireland (with the occasional serious incident) since the Good Friday agreement and "no deal" will see a return to some of the sectarian stuff from the '80's.
Of course this barely got a mention during the referendum but, this was always THE biggest issue and there is still no solution, only the hope that there could be one over the coming few years, which is why the EU insisted on the Backstop, something that Boris is still prepared to pretend doesn't matter.'"
There are border controls for EU citizens moving within the EU - have been to an airport recently it isn't simply free movement. There are still checks of goods moving within the EU - when they rarely have a drug seizure. The idea that every container coming into the EU is fully scanned is simple not true - they would have to open every container empty it etc. It doesn't happen. Goods with the correct paperwork move seamlessly into the EU from non EU countries so why is moving the same product across the Irish border in exactly the same way now such an issue?
The fact the Irish want to use violence as a smoke screen for organised crime is not an issue that should hold back such a huge decision - it is the only way the EU perceive they can delay us leaving. If the Irish want to blow each other up let them do it. We shouldn't let 3-4 million people dictate for 60+ million - our have we all turned into Queen Nicola, we let gangs in London kill each other every week with much of an attempt to stop it.
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| Quote: Sal Paradise "There are border controls for EU citizens moving within the EU - have been to an airport recently it isn't simply free movement. There are still checks of goods moving within the EU - when they rarely have a drug seizure. The idea that every container coming into the EU is fully scanned is simple not true - they would have to open every container empty it etc. It doesn't happen. Goods with the correct paperwork move seamlessly into the EU from non EU countries so why is moving the same product across the Irish border in exactly the same way now such an issue?
The fact the Irish want to use violence as a smoke screen for organised crime is not an issue that should hold back such a huge decision - it is the only way the EU perceive they can delay us leaving. If the Irish want to blow each other up let them do it. We shouldn't let 3-4 million people dictate for 60+ million - our have we all turned into Queen Nicola, we let gangs in London kill each other every week with much of an attempt to stop it.'"
Sorry but, you're wrong again.
You previously mentioned freight form China, USA etc and yes, EVERY shipping container is scanned. I can send you copy invoices showing the charge for this if you like, and some are opened (although this is pretty rare).
Within Europe, which is a single trading block, things are different. Of course there are passport controls between certain nations and especially at airports.
However, you seem to be suggesting that NONE of this will happen between the two "halves" of Ireland and that everything should be allowed to move accross the border, in both directions, based on "trust"
Remembering that YOU voted to "take back control" of our borders, one of which is on the island of Ireland. Therefore, there would have to be FULL border control, both for people and goods, which will massively impact on the everyday lives of all of those living there - who regularly move from north to south and south to north.
Ireland will still be full members of the EU, with free movement form anywhere in Europe - apart from the UK, which seems slightly strange but, it's part of "the package".
You may well b right about organised crime and an open border certainly makes the movement of illegal goods and people far simpler.
Therefore, how would you prevent this from happening, a fecking honesty box at each border crossing
The Tories and Farage dont have the answer yet, other than saying that they "will have one soon" but, the truth is they havent got a clue and in a no deal scenario, the best they have got is that "we wont put any border controls in place", which isnt any kind of "control", is it.
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| Quote: Sal Paradise "I have mentioned numerous times on here how it that goods from SE Asia the US, China can move seamlessly across the EU border but all of sudden this will be an issue with these same goods crossing the same the only difference is we are no longer in the EU - surely the technology that allows Apple to bring its computers from SE Asia without delay at the ports can applied once we have left the EU?'" I thought we'd move beyond this simplistic nonsense which conflates either through ignorance wilful misrepresentation the supply chains from the EU and those from further afield. Do you have any idea how the ro-ro Port of Dover works compared to the container Port of Felixstowe? Dover is based on immediate throughput for accompanied wheeled freight from Calais and Dunkerque and has very little standage area for inspection and clearance.
The big container ports require clearance by customs, with some of the paper shuffling being managed by teams who deal with it during the sea passage which takes several weeks. Then you need to sort out the duty payments, unless you have an approved deferment account.
At the very best it will take several years to build the required customs facilities for this to even come close to working, never mind training enough staff to deal with such a huge increase in workload. The idea of leaving without any of this in place is insanity to anyone with the slightest clue about supply chains or logistics management.
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| Quote: The Ghost of '99 "
At the very best it will take several years to build the required customs facilities for this to even come close to working, never mind training enough staff to deal with such a huge increase in workload. The idea of leaving without any of this in place is insanity to anyone with the slightest clue about supply chains or logistics management.'"
I dont agree with the "several years" comment but, it certainly wont be instant.
Therefore, we either turn a blind eye to freight coming in from the EU or, as you rightly say, there will be a huge backlog of traffic.
It's patently clear that neither ourselves or the EU are ready for no deal, which may suggest that there will, even at this late stage, be some form of agreement.
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