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FORUMS > The Sin Bin > No More Arguments: Austerity is Working!
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Quote: JerryChicken "So its a blog and it writer has an opinion, but those opinions are linked to facts (within the article) provided by the Office for Budget Responsibility which is basically Osbornes mentors, have a read at the stats they came out with this week which seem, unusually, to have been hidden quite well by the ho-hah over the employment figures, possibly because these figures are not as optimistic.

rlhttps://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/the-rise-of-the-hardworking-poor/rl

Doesn't really matter what your political opinions are, if you can read a graph you can ignore the rhetoric and decide for yourself whether or not wages are keeping pace with economic growth or past projections - they aren't by the way.

Personally I'm of a mind to agree with the last paragraph ...

No amount of selfish "Well I'm ok" or "Well work harder" or "Well get another job" can alter the facts.'"


You cannot expect real income to improve quickly after such a serious crisis. The fact that so many new jobs have been created is a big step in the right direction. Once confidence and growth return then productivity then profits and then income will then have a chance to increase.

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Quote: Lord Elpers "All the signs are for the recovery to continue. We have just had the biggest upward revision of growth in an official forecast for 14 years as I previously reported (OBR's jump from 0.6% to 1.4% and forecast 2.4% for 2014) Business optimism has been even stronger with the three main sectors of the economy - services, manufacturing and construction - are showing the strongest pick-up since the mid 1990s when the economy was recovering strongly.'"


Does uncertainty multiply exponentially? There are a lot of known unknowns in there. As well as unmeasurables.

Quote: Lord Elpers "So clearly Osborne has stuck to his plan despite all his many critics demanding he change direction. His austerity policy is now proven to be clearly working and bearing fruit and he has won the intellectual economic policy argument over Labour with their borrow and spend and others with the Keynesian dogma.
'"

Really?

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Quote: Lord Elpers "You cannot expect real income to improve quickly after such a serious crisis.'"


Why not? Gideon's plans are "proven to be clearly working". If he's that good, why are incomes not improving as fast for non-MPs?

Quote: Lord Elpers "The fact that so many new jobs have been created is a big step in the right direction. Once confidence and growth return then productivity then profits and then income will then have a chance to increase.'"

So only if a company starts making a profit, they might be able to pay more in wages? And not more to shareholders? And the costs of producing the goods and services don't already include the cost of wages? And of course no bosses in a private company will ever just carry on with the same wages for staff while filling up the Bentley with the increased company income.

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Quote: DaveO "The more logical measure to adopt would be those in full time employment, defined say as a minimum of 35 hours a week.
It would then be simple enough to calculate a total figure of how many people are part-time, on zero hours and actually unemployed.
No politician is gong to do that though as I suspect the figures would be pretty shocking but it would give us a true figure of how many of those 30m people in work stand a chance of supporting themselves as they have a full time job.'"

We already know these figures, the numbers are in the papers almost every day.
Quote: DaveO "The rest? Well the state (i.e. you and me assuming you are a taxpayer) will be topping up their wages with benefit payments i.e. subsidising the profits of their employers.
Are you happy to be doing that?'"

I'm not subsidising any employer, they employ people on a salary, if governments choose to bump up this salary with "free" money then that's their shout and will be reflected in my thoughts come election day.
Quote: DaveO "My Dad used to say (and this is decades ago I remember him saying it) that overtime was a great evil as it meant employers could save on employing enough workers to do the necessary work. It has always happened that people in employment take extra hours and employers are happy for them to do so. Back when my Dad said this is would have been seen as very left wing given things like zero hours contracts were unheard of.'"

Why would employers take on more staff when there are people willing to work the extra for time and a half/double time?
The name "zero hour contracts" may not have existed but I bet the practice did, did bar staff in the local Lib/Lab/Con club have cast iron contracts guaranteeing work? How many shop assistants? I know when I worked in a bar, a long time ago, I didn't. I had 2 pencilled in shifts, Sunday 1There are also increasing numbers ( record numbers in fact) of over 65's still working. '"
I'm almost certain there are, the population is aging, the health of the population increases people stay active longer, (I've just left my dad on scaffolding painting the side of a house, he's pushing 70).
Why are people working longer? Need money? Like to do something? Escape the spouse?

Quote: DaveO "What is needed is a combination of decent wages, pensions and legislation to ensure employers don't exploit people and people don't hog jobs. '"
Hog jobs?

Quote: DaveO "Companies like Vauxhall do things called planning. They know what the demand for cars is at particular times of year and they employ economist to predict what they need to build. They aren't take by surprise and suddenly need to rush out and contact an employment agency to employ someone on zero hours contracts.'"

Did they plan to almost close the plant? Funny you should mention agency work, VW in Germany recently announced an intake of agency staff in Germany.

Quote: DaveO "If unemployment ever does drop significantly they won't be able to find people to work like this. What are they going to do then?'"

Then the employees hold the whip hand.

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Why are people fixated with retiring at an arbitray age - such as 65? If I live that long and am fit enough I'd like to work until at least 75. I'd be happy greeting people at B&Q or whatever. Why not?

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Quote: Lord Elpers " And why should we forget Labour's opposition to every single move the government has made to recify our economy and we should not forget either Labour's runinous alternative policy?'"


Its what the opposition does, its what every opposition party does, there wouldn't be any point in an opposition party if all they did was agree with the government.

But heres the thing - they may object in parliament but it doesn't mean that they wouldn't have done exactly the same thing themselves in the same situation - thats the luxury of being in opposition, you can object and sneer at the governing party all you like and yet offer no alternative or solution or even offer some credible advice - its where the parliamentary party system fails.

Was accidentally reading Osbornes reaction to the bailing out of the banks in 2008, he criticised Darling and Brown for giving any assistance to any bank and blamed everything on Labours economic policies and their wasteful use of public money in those policies - as was his right - yet he offered no suggestion as to what he would have done, nor has he since, as is his right.

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Quote: Lord Elpers "You cannot expect real income to improve quickly after such a serious crisis. The fact that so many new jobs have been created is a big step in the right direction. Once confidence and growth return then productivity then profits and then income will then have a chance to increase.'"



I'm expecting nothing, I'm just highlighting how the predictions have failed so miserably over several years and how revision follows revision just as Spring follows Winter...

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Quote: BobbyD "We already know these figures, the numbers are in the papers almost every day.'"


There's a limit to the number of smilies permitted, so I'll stick with two

icon_lol.gif icon_lol.gif

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Quote: BobbyD "Is it an interpreting graphs thing? IT seems to go on a lot round here. Unless you think Osborne's policies influenced the French, Germans and Italians.'"

Yes you do seem to have a problem with it.
No I don't. I think their economies were affected by a Euro fiscal problem within the Eurozone that required billions of Euros to bail out some of their monetary partners. Fortunately we didn't have that problem as we stayed with the pound. There's a reason it was called a Eurozone crisis.

If you think it affected the UK that badly, how do you explain the fact that UK exports kept increasing during that period?
Not to mention why consumer confidence, business confidence etc would fall so quickly after the Coalition coming into power despite rising just before?

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Quote: DaveO "The more logical measure to adopt would be those in full time employment, defined say as a minimum of 35 hours a week.

It would then be simple enough to calculate a total figure of how many people are part-time, on zero hours and actually unemployed.

No politician is gong to do that though as I suspect the figures would be pretty shocking but it would give us a true figure of how many of those 30m people in work stand a chance of supporting themselves as they have a full time job.

The rest? Well the state (i.e. you and me assuming you are a taxpayer) will be topping up their wages with benefit payments i.e. subsidising the profits of their employers.

Are you happy to be doing that?

My Dad used to say (and this is decades ago I remember him saying it) that overtime was a great evil as it meant employers could save on employing enough workers to do the necessary work. It has always happened that people in employment take extra hours and employers are happy for them to do so. Back when my Dad said this is would have been seen as very left wing given things like zero hours contracts were unheard of.

There are also increasing numbers ( record numbers in fact) of over 65's still working.

What is needed is a combination of decent wages, pensions and legislation to ensure employers don't exploit people and people don't hog jobs.


Companies like Vauxhall do things called planning. They know what the demand for cars is at particular times of year and they employ economist to predict what they need to build. They aren't take by surprise and suddenly need to rush out and contact an employment agency to employ someone on zero hours contracts.

They couldn't anyway as I doubt there are people with the necessary skills sat by the phone waiting for a few hours assembly line work this week so they will retain their workers as a proper contract with a certain amount of guaranteed work - and pay.

For things like shops that have a Christmas employment issue they know what day Christmas falls on and ha e for decades planned accordingly. Temporary work at such times has always been there but is no excuse for zero hours jobs elsewhere.

Basically zero hours contracts excuses companies from planning and competence. They can just rush out and pick a few people up. If unemployment ever does drop significantly they won't be able to find people to work like this. What are they going to do then?'"


Firstly I am a Tory voter and I will always vote that way - damage limitation in my opinion. The idea that we are in recovery is just fantasy IMO. I do think there is the beginnings of a better feeling but it is the beginnings IMO and it will take several months.

I think your appraisal of a manufacturing supply chain is way off the mark for the majority of businesses. Supply chain planning is one of the most difficult jobs in any organisation and a challenge that even the best - Apple - have not mastered. Even simple supply chains are complex.

The idea that there is no case for labour flexibility - zero hour contracts are a no-no for me - because planning is so easy is so far from reality that it is obvious you know very little about supply chain and manufacturing.

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Quote: Chris28 "There's a limit to the number of smilies permitted, so I'll stick with two


Yes, I know, in my defence I didn't say they were accurate.

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Quote: Him "If you think it affected the UK that badly, how do you explain the fact that UK exports kept increasing during that period?'"
Were we shipping stuff overseas for more money?
Still, i'm sure it's just another crazy, crazy coincidence that the general trend was for export increase despite the economic fall/collapse in the Eurozone like in the UK. It's almost like they're linked.
France
Italy

Not to mention why consumer confidence, business confidence etc would fall so quickly after the Coalition coming into power despite rising just before?'"
]

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Quote: Lord Elpers "It is interesting to note that all these moderator types who spend so much time on here all have left wing views and seem to know a lot about under-employment. I wonder why? How many are public servants? How many are employed? and if so do their employers know they are moonlighting? '"

So yeah, in the "Real World" where only right wingers do any hard work?

Quote: Lord Elpers "All the signs are for the recovery to continue. We have just had the biggest upward revision of growth in an official forecast for 14 years as I previously reported (OBR's jump from 0.6% to 1.4% and forecast 2.4% for 2014) Business optimism has been even stronger with the three main sectors of the economy - services, manufacturing and construction - are showing the strongest pick-up since the mid 1990s when the economy was recovering strongly. '"

And we've just had some very big downward revisions, not to mention the growth figures are still small, as welcome as they are. Business and consumer confidence were also strong just before the 2010 election. Government policies put paid to that.

Quote: Lord Elpers "So clearly Osborne has stuck to his plan despite all his many critics demanding he change direction. His austerity policy is now proven to be clearly working and bearing fruit and he has won the intellectual economic policy argument over Labour with their borrow and spend and others with the Keynesian dogma. '"

That's it, just say it again and it might come true. Think happy thoughts and you might reach Neverland too.

Quote: Lord Elpers "See my piece above (and previous comments) about what Buster Brown & Ed Balls-up left behind. The economy had dived 7.2% in 2008/9 and any improvement prior to the 2010 election should not be taken as a "growing economy" You are deluding yourself if you think otherwise. '"

Yes, we've seen what they left behind, an economy growing with virtually all economic indicators in a positive direction. The Chancellor that compared us to Greece and told us to follow Ireland's example and his government's policies turned that around.

Quote: Lord Elpers "Because there are those that agree with my points does not make them followers or indeed fakes. You seem obsessed and I could perhaps take you more seriously if you stopped being so personal. '"

Where have I been personal? He is quite clearly an additional account setup by someone already banned or who wants a different persona.
The only one getting personal on here is you with your rather silly attempts at pretending that only the right wingers have jobs.

Quote: Lord Elpers " Ok then lets have some details on your "different more logical economic policy" '"

One that doesn't destroy consumer and business confidence. One that used Britain's record low borrowing rates to invest and get people into work. Creating a virtuous cycle of employment and consumer spending. Pretty much the opposite to the Coalition policy.

Quote: Lord Elpers "The eurozone crisis started before the UK election.

January 2010https://www.theguardian.com/business/interactive/2012/oct/17/eurozone-crisis-interactive-timeline-three-yearsrl'"

Interesting which bits you omitted from there isn't it. Like the one in December 2009 where George Osborne thinks we're like Greece. Or the bit where it mentions the UK had emerged from recession, ie the economy was growing. The graphs prove any effects of the Eurozone were later than when the UK suffered its economic dip, unless somehow the UK was affected earlier than countries actually in the Eurozone.

You can continue to just keep saying "austerity is working" over and over again if you want. You started with that and seems like you're sticking to that tactic even after 19 pages. But it doesn't make it true, 3+ years of a flat economy (in real terms -3.3%) prove that it didn't work. As mentioned by others, if you wait long enough of course the economy will come back on its own, its what you do in the mean time that shows what kind of government you are. The fact is this government did little to nothing to help mitigate the effects of the crash and their policies on the people of this country and took the opportunity to defund public services whilst privatising others.
However the biggest criticism I reserve for this government (aside from the attacks on welfare & public services) is the shameful, disgraceful cut in investment. The last thing a weak economy needs is for government to cut back on investment and that's exactly what they did. Down to negative net figures.

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Quote: BobbyD " Graphs '"

icon_confused.gif
Thanks for proving that exports increased, saved me a job.

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Quote: Him "

Yes, they increased. They increased all over the Eurozone. Why was this despite the economic slow down?

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15:00
Dewsbury
v
Keighley
15:00
Newcastle
v
Midlands
15:00
Swinton
v
Goole V
15:00
Workington
v
Crusaders
 Sun 6th Apr 2025
       League One 2025-R5
14:00
Midlands
v
Dewsbury
14:30
Crusaders
v
Cornwall
15:00
Keighley
v
Swinton
15:00
Rochdale
v
Workington
15:00
Whitehaven
v
Newcastle
 Thu 10th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R7
20:00
Salford
v
Leeds
 Fri 11th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R7
20:00
Hull KR
v
Wigan
20:00
St.Helens
v
Wakefield
 Sat 12th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R7
17:30
Warrington
v
Hull FC
20:00
Castleford
v
Leigh
 Sun 13th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R7
15:00
Huddersfield
v
Catalans
 Thu 17th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R8
20:00
Wakefield
v
Castleford
 Fri 18th Apr 2025
       League One 2025-R6
14:00
Midlands
v
Crusaders
15:00
Dewsbury
v
Newcastle
15:00
Rochdale
v
Swinton
15:00
Workington
v
Whitehaven
18:30
Keighley
v
Goole V
     Mens Super League XXX-R8
20:00
Hull FC
v
Hull KR
20:00
Wigan
v
St.Helens
20:00
Leeds
v
Huddersfield
 Sat 19th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R8
20:00
Leigh
v
Warrington
20:00
Catalans
v
Salford
 Thu 24th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R9
20:00
Warrington
v
St.Helens
20:00
Leeds
v
Hull KR
 Fri 25th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R9
20:00
Salford
v
Leigh
 Sat 26th Apr 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R9
15:00
Huddersfield
v
Castleford
17:30
Catalans
v
Wakefield
 Sun 27th Apr 2025
       League One 2025-R7
13:00
Cornwall
v
Keighley
14:30
Crusaders
v
Whitehaven
     Mens Super League XXX-R9
15:00
Hull FC
v
Wigan
       League One 2025-R7
15:00
Dewsbury
v
Rochdale
15:00
Newcastle
v
Goole V
15:00
Workington
v
Swinton
 Fri 2nd May 2025
       League One 2025-R8
20:00
Newcastle
v
Workington
 Sat 3rd May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R10
15:00
Leigh
v
Catalans
       League One 2025-R8
15:00
Rochdale
v
Goole V
     Mens Super League XXX-R10
17:15
Hull KR
v
Salford
19:30
St.Helens
v
Leeds
 Sun 4th May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R10
13:00
Huddersfield
v
Hull FC
       League One 2025-R8
13:00
Cornwall
v
Midlands
15:00
Swinton
v
Crusaders
15:00
Whitehaven
v
Dewsbury
     Mens Super League XXX-R10
15:15
Wigan
v
Warrington
17:30
Castleford
v
Wakefield
 Sun 11th May 2025
       League One 2025-R9
14:30
Crusaders
v
Newcastle
15:00
Dewsbury
v
Cornwall
15:00
Keighley
v
Workington
15:00
Rochdale
v
Midlands
15:00
Whitehaven
v
Goole V
 Thu 15th May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R11
20:00
St.Helens
v
Catalans
 Fri 16th May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R11
20:00
Leeds
v
Hull FC
20:00
Wigan
v
Leigh
 Sat 17th May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R11
15:00
Hull KR
v
Huddersfield
 Sun 18th May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R11
15:00
Wakefield
v
Warrington
17:30
Castleford
v
Salford
 Thu 22nd May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R12
20:00
Leigh
v
Hull FC
 Fri 23rd May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R12
20:00
Huddersfield
v
St.Helens
20:00
Warrington
v
Hull KR
 Sat 24th May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R12
14:30
Castleford
v
Leeds
17:30
Catalans
v
Wigan
 Sun 25th May 2025
       League One 2025-R10
14:00
Midlands
v
Whitehaven
     Mens Super League XXX-R12
15:00
Wakefield
v
Salford
       League One 2025-R10
15:00
Keighley
v
Crusaders
15:00
Rochdale
v
Newcastle
15:00
Swinton
v
Cornwall
15:00
Workington
v
Goole V
 Thu 29th May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R13
20:00
Huddersfield
v
Leigh
 Fri 30th May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R13
20:00
Hull KR
v
St.Helens
20:00
Salford
v
Wigan
 Sat 31st May 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R13
14:30
Leeds
v
Wakefield
17:30
Catalans
v
Hull FC
 Sun 1st Jun 2025
       League One 2025-R11
13:00
Cornwall
v
Goole V
14:00
Midlands
v
Swinton
14:30
Crusaders
v
Rochdale
     Mens Super League XXX-R13
15:00
Warrington
v
Castleford
       League One 2025-R11
15:00
Newcastle
v
Keighley
15:00
Workington
v
Dewsbury
 Fri 13th Jun 2025
       League One 2025-R12
19:00
Dewsbury
v
Goole V
     Mens Super League XXX-R14
20:00
Hull FC
v
Castleford
20:00
Hull KR
v
Catalans
 Sat 14th Jun 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R14
15:00
Huddersfield
v
Wigan
17:30
Leeds
v
Warrington
 Sun 15th Jun 2025
     Mens Super League XXX-R14
14:30
Wakefield
v
Leigh
       League One 2025-R12
14:30
Crusaders
v
Midlands
     Mens Super League XXX-R14
15:00
Salford
v
St.Helens
       League One 2025-R12
15:00
Keighley
v
Rochdale
15:00
Swinton
v
Workington
15:00
Whitehaven
v
Cornwall
ALL SCORES PROVIDED BY RLFANS.COM (SETTINGS)
Matches on TV
Thu 13th Feb
SL
20:00
Wigan-Leigh
Fri 14th Feb
SL
20:00
Hull KR-Castleford
SL
20:00
Catalans-Hull FC
Sat 15th Feb
SL
15:00
Leeds-Wakefield
SL
17:30
St.Helens-Salford
Sun 16th Feb
SL
15:00
Huddersfield-Warrington
Thu 20th Feb
SL
20:00
Wakefield-Hull KR
Fri 21st Feb
SL
20:00
Warrington-Catalans
SL
20:00
Hull FC-Wigan
Sat 22nd Feb
SL
15:00
Salford-Leeds
SL
20:00
Castleford-St.Helens
Sun 23rd Feb
SL
14:30
Leigh-Huddersfield
Fri 28th Feb
SL
20:00
Huddersfield-Hull FC
SL
20:00
Hull KR-Salford
SL
20:00
Leigh-Catalans
Sat 1st Mar
SL
14:30
Wakefield-St.Helens
SL
21:30
Wigan-Warrington
Sun 2nd Mar
SL
15:00
Leeds-Castleford
Thu 6th Mar
SL
20:00
Hull FC-Leigh
Fri 7th Mar
SL
20:00
Castleford-Salford
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Mens Betfred Super League XXVIII ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Wigan 4 150 48 102 8
St.Helens 4 100 32 68 6
Warrington 4 98 54 44 6
Leeds 4 74 64 10 6
Catalans 3 60 28 32 4
Hull KR 3 54 29 25 4
 
Huddersfield 4 82 74 8 4
Salford 3 59 54 5 4
Hull FC 4 50 108 -58 2
Leigh 3 18 56 -38 0
Castleford 4 42 138 -96 0
LondonB 4 50 162 -112 0
This is an inplay table and live positions can change.
Betfred Championship 2024 ROUND : 1
 PLDFADIFFPTS
Wakefield 27 1032 275 757 52
Toulouse 26 765 388 377 37
Bradford 28 723 420 303 36
York 29 695 501 194 32
Widnes 27 561 502 59 29
Featherstone 27 634 525 109 28
 
Sheffield 26 626 526 100 28
Doncaster 26 498 619 -121 25
Halifax 26 509 650 -141 22
Batley 26 422 591 -169 22
Swinton 28 484 676 -192 20
Barrow 25 442 720 -278 19
Whitehaven 25 437 826 -389 18
Dewsbury 27 348 879 -531 4
Hunslet 1 6 10 -4 0
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