FORUMS > The Sin Bin > No More Arguments: Austerity is Working! |
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| Quote: JerryChicken "Lets all be honest, there has been one long continuous depression since the worlds banks went arrse over tit in 2008 and as everyone who pays a mortgage, rent, utilities and food bills knows (I accept that AJW may not be in this category) very few people have improved their lot since that time and most have slipped backwards, its not a good track record to date and the first two quarters of 2014 will be VERY interesting because we all have to start "feeling good" in 2014 ready for the next General Election, it will probably have to come from bribes though.
And for the record, there was a recession in 2010, then there wasn't, it was all sleight of hand or just a bad dream.
I believe.'"
Not quite accurate. Anyone who has a mortgage is much better off than they could have been since 2008 because the world economic crash has meant a record low level of bank interest.
Very few people in Euroland and the USA are better off either.
And we did not have a double did recession or a triple did recession. The initial figures have always to be taken with a pinch of salt as not all the stats are available until some considerable time later when the actual real fugures can be produced.
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| Quote: Him "Of course you will
Well you might not like what I say and I may make an odd mistake but I do not make things up. Because I disagree with much of the left wing whinging comments on here does not make me right wing. You can disagree with an extremist without being one yourself.
It would be nice to hear some facts from you on the good news of the recovery
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| Quote: BobbyD "Then there's the GDP of the Euro area, our largest trading partner.
From
It's almost like our economy started to slow down again when the economy of the area we do the most trade with slowed down.'"
I keep making the same point plus the drop in North Sea oil income plus the drop in the financial sector effecting us more than most.
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| Quote: Lord Elpers "Well you might not like what I say and I may make an odd mistake but I do not make things up. Because I disagree with much of the left wing whinging comments on here does not make me right wing. You can disagree with an extremist without being one yourself.
It would be nice to hear some facts from you on the good news of the recovery'"
I was questioning the made up facts from one of your right wing friends on here. But sadly he seems to have done a runner. Just like you will do soon.
There is little good news in the economy so far. Of course growth is preferable to contraction but they're still relatively low figures and we have a huge amount of ground to make up.
The unemployment figures have fallen. Yet there is plenty of evidence to suggest people have been forced to take very low hour/zero hour contract jobs when not suitable or forced off JSA altogether by jobcentre sanctions. The Unemployment figures don't take into account the underemployed. Also the employment figures include all unpaid family workers (up 9%) and all those on apprenticeships, work experience and government training & employment programmes. Not to mention the employment figures don't take into account population increases, whilst the unemployment rate does but doesn't factor in foreign, short stay workers. And the claimant count doesn't include those now on Universal Credit.
Median real wages have fallen since 2009 and continue to fall. Now at a level similar to a decade ago.
Redundancies have stayed roughly similar, but are still only at the level they were 2 years ago.
The number of underemployed workers has risen by 300,000 since 2010 and continues to rise with a large number simply classed as "unknown".
The long term unemployment rate has increased and continues to.
GDP per capita has fallen since 2010 and shows no sign of increasing.
This is, of course, all a national picture and we know some areas are particularly suffering. Which hasn't been helped by the abolition of the regional development agencies and a huge cut to government investment under the Coalition, down to negative net figures.
As for your (and George's) assertion that the post election economic dip was due to the Eurozone? That's just guff.
The UK dip started end of Q3/start of Q4 2010. As the graph you've used shows the Eurozone didn't go into recession until 2012. Plus during that period exports increased, they didn't take a hit. Both business and consumer confidence were both positive and increasing in the period prior to the election. As was consumer spending, retail sales, housing production, industrial production, capacity utilisation and manufacturing production. Whilst the number of unemployed, the youth unemployment rate, government bond yields, inflation and bankruptcies were falling.
It was the UK government not the Eurozone that so affected the UK economy.
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| Quote: Him "I was questioning the made up facts from one of your right wing friends on here. But sadly he seems to have done a runner. Just like you will do soon.
GDP per capita has fallen since 2010 and shows no sign of increasing.
It was the UK government not the Eurozone that so affected the UK economy.'"
UK GDP per capita
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| Quote: Him "As for your (and George's) assertion that the post election economic dip was due to the Eurozone? That's just guff.
The UK dip started end of Q3/start of Q4 2010. As the graph you've used shows the Eurozone didn't go into recession until 2012.
It was the UK government not the Eurozone that so affected the UK economy.'"
UK
France
Italy
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| Quote: Him "The Unemployment figures don't take into account the underemployed.'"
Why should they?
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| Quote: Lord Elpers "Not quite accurate. Anyone who has a mortgage is much better off than they could have been since 2008 because the world economic crash has meant a record low level of bank interest.
Very few people in Euroland and the USA are better off either.
And we did not have a double did recession or a triple did recession. The initial figures have always to be taken with a pinch of salt as not all the stats are available until some considerable time later when the actual real fugures can be produced.'"
There is an element of truth in the mortgage low interest, not totally true as those who bought into fixed rates will confirm but fortunately for those like me our fixed rate ended at the time that base rates were falling and I rang the Nationwide up for advice - and this is why I favour mutual societies rather than outright mortgage selling shops - they advised that their 2.5% base rate would last "for at least 12 months", three years later we're still benefiting.
It still does not disguise the fact that household bills in total have never been higher and I include that mad period in the 80s when interest rates hit 17% and this has to worry the two parties in government, everyone has to start feeling better about the economy early in 2014 to drive up to the election, I expect some sweetening and incredible PR in the early months of next year.
As for the ONS stats, yes they are adjusted, usually after two quarters and the initial figures are always labelled "to be taken with a pinch of salt", it is however unusual for the figures to be adjusted fifteen months later and even more so five years later and you have to ask what or who was the driving force behind that seemingly random choice of revisionary calculus ?
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| Quote: Ajw71 "When lefties speak about the recession in 2008 under Labour they are quick to trot out 'oh it was a global crisis' and 'it was nothing to do with labour policies'. In other words they cite external factors.'"
You really know absolutely nothing about it, do you?
Which of Labour's policies caused the subprime market in the US to collapse triggering the whole thing?
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| Quote: Lord Elpers "You conveniently are ignoring the three major outside factors that hit growth since 2010.
'"
While others conveniently ignore the reasons for the whole balls up in the first place...
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| Quote: BobbyD "Why should they?'"
Why shouldn't they?
That they do not disguises the depth of the issues, both individual, societal and economic.
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| Quote: Him "I was questioning the made up facts from one of your right wing friends on here. But sadly he seems to have done a runner. Just like you will do soon. .'"
Not every one has the time to spend their life on forums. Some of us have to work.
Quote: Him "There is little good news in the economy so far. Of course growth is preferable to contraction but they're still relatively low figures and we have a huge amount of ground to make up. .'"
Well we disagree. Given the state of the world's economies what we are seeing in the UK is very good news. Nobody is doing cartwheels and I have stated there is much more still to do. But the evidence is clear Osbornes austerity plan is working and his critics have been proven to be wrong. You appear to be a sore loser!
Quote: Him "The unemployment figures have fallen. Yet there is plenty of evidence to suggest people have been forced to take very low hour/zero hour contract jobs when not suitable or forced off JSA altogether by jobcentre sanctions. The Unemployment figures don't take into account the underemployed. Also the employment figures include all unpaid family workers (up 9%) and all those on apprenticeships, work experience and government training & employment programmes. Not to mention the employment figures don't take into account population increases, whilst the unemployment rate does but doesn't factor in foreign, short stay workers. And the claimant count doesn't include those now on Universal Credit.
Median real wages have fallen since 2009 and continue to fall. Now at a level similar to a decade ago.
Redundancies have stayed roughly similar, but are still only at the level they were 2 years ago.
The number of underemployed workers has risen by 300,000 since 2010 and continues to rise with a large number simply classed as "unknown".
The long term unemployment rate has increased and continues to. .'"
Some of this maybe true but the overall number of new jobs has risen which should be welcomed given the very difficult hand this government were dealt. This increase in jobs is the complete opposite of what the left wing economist doom-mongers predicted.
Quote: Him "GDP per capita has fallen since 2010 and shows no sign of increasing. .'" Really?
Quote: Him "This is, of course, all a national picture and we know some areas are particularly suffering. Which hasn't been helped by the abolition of the regional development agencies and a huge cut to government investment under the Coalition, down to negative net figures. .'"
So you think the many and serious problems left by Labour and the world economic meltdown could all be solved at a stroke eh?
Quote: Him "As for your (and George's) assertion that the post election economic dip was due to the Eurozone? That's just guff.
The UK dip started end of Q3/start of Q4 2010. As the graph you've used shows the Eurozone didn't go into recession until 2012. Plus during that period exports increased, they didn't take a hit. Both business and consumer confidence were both positive and increasing in the period prior to the election. As was consumer spending, retail sales, housing production, industrial production, capacity utilisation and manufacturing production. Whilst the number of unemployed, the youth unemployment rate, government bond yields, inflation and bankruptcies were falling.
It was the UK government not the Eurozone that so affected the UK economy.'"
Are you really saying the euozone crisis and recession had no serious impact on our economy?
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| Quote: Mintball "Why shouldn't they?
That they do not disguises the depth of the issues, both individual, societal and economic.'"
Underemployed isn't unemployed.
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| Quote: BobbyD "Underemployed isn't unemployed.'"
I didn't say that it was.
But we use unemployment as one measure of the economic health of the nation. Underemployment is the same – and it closely linked to the question of unemployment.
And one present question is what the downward movement on unemployment means. Because if people have largely gone into jobs that only, for example, give them an hour a week of work, with concomitantly low pay, then that is merely a disguise for a continuation of something that is almost the same as unemployment and costs society and taxpayer in the same way, and celebrating it is mere spin.
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