That is entirely what you would expect to see when the majority of the population in that group is fully vaccinated, so I am not sure what you are trying to say.

I would not gloat until the effects of freedom day filter through, this should be sometime this week.

There is no denying the drop in cases is positive, especially when it doesn't appear to be solely caused by a reduction in testing. Let's hope it continues.

Schools finishing will have a positive effect as will all the nice weather. Make the most of it while you can. There's bound to be some ups and downs yet.

Meanwhile in Mental Health Trusts we're seeing the effects of the pandemic in terms of its effect on mental health. We also have 6000 fewer beds than we had in 2010 which was a real problem before all this started.

You are in the most invidious position - the lockdown will drive up mental health issues - was the trade off really worth it?

I bet you have everything crossed for another spike - why are you so averse to any kind of good news? No doubt if they continue dropping you will be banging on about new variants the last bastion of those who want to control society.

Why is it gloating? Is it not good to see a fall in cases? Would you rather see a rise? I strongly suspect you would.

If you look at Brazil then the trade off was worth it. There was no "easy option" available. Many MH referrals are increased because of the pandemic, no doubt about it, but had we not locked down there would have been more illness and fatalities that would've led to more MH referrals.

Those 6000 fewer MH beds since 2010 are an issue. We currently have children on adult mental health wards and inpatients in beds over 150 miles from their homes because there are no beds in their own areas. It's the same in every Trust.

Whilst I know we are a tad different in terms of population density, lockdowns when done correctly with 99.9% acceptance, were short and sweet here. 5 weeks full.....3 weeks next stage and within 12 weeks we were back to normal.
Lockdowns work, but only if you close your borders and make returning citizens isolate in government funded hotels.....again, not as easy to do with a population your size.
So what you had was a series of half lockdowns that slowed but didn't stop the virus spreading, but if you compare the UK death toll to what it could hav been if you'd simply ploughed on I'd have to say the rise in mental health issues was well worth it.
500 deaths reported in the last 7 days, hospital admissions at a steady rate and infection numbers seeming to have plateaued at about 25,000.....the UK is at a key point in the fight and the world is watching you ....

Quote: mailman "That is entirely what you would expect to see when the majority of the population in that group is fully vaccinated, so I am not sure what you are trying to say.'" A simple version of the numbers, but it gets the point across. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610998 US Dept of Health will soon publish data on correlates of protection for covid (Correlates of Protection define the immune response a vaccine or natural viral infection would need to trigger so that an individual is protected from a virus or infectious disease in the future.The aim of measuring immune response to vaccination or natural viral infection is to understand the level at which a person can fight off a future infection). It's a significant piece of work and the definitive piece of evidence used to determine the level of immune response needed to confer immunity to an infectious disease, and to then compare that to the immune response generated by the vaccines. The data will show that the vaccines generate a massive protective immune response well above the level (up to 10x) the level of the calculated correlate of protection.

Quote: mailman "That is entirely what you would expect to see when the majority of the population in that group is fully vaccinated, so I am not sure what you are trying to say.'" A simple version of the numbers, but it gets the point across. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57610998 US Dept of Health will soon publish data on correlates of protection for covid (Correlates of Protection define the immune response a vaccine or natural viral infection would need to trigger so that an individual is protected from a virus or infectious disease in the future.The aim of measuring immune response to vaccination or natural viral infection is to understand the level at which a person can fight off a future infection). It's a significant piece of work and the definitive piece of evidence used to determine the level of immune response needed to confer immunity to an infectious disease, and to then compare that to the immune response generated by the vaccines. The data will show that the vaccines generate a massive protective immune response well above the level (up to 10x) the level of the calculated correlate of protection.

I bet you are fun at parties.

Scrap that, I bet you don’t get invited

At least I don’t support a leader who is unable to shelter under an umbrella or even open one.
It is not a case of gloating on my part but those that believe we are free to indulge in life unfettered by any safety measures before the impact of so called freedom day is taken into consideration. I would also point out that with the schools now being closed the number of tests are reduced and therefore the number of positives will also be lower.

You do realise that the Percentage of positive tests to tests taken is also falling rapidly? Of course you knew that but it doesn’t fit your narrative.

Good news, not so good news week.

Not so good news: vaccine breakthrough data compared to initial correlates of protection from Oxford Uni is starting to show that Covid can infect most people who are vaccinated, only 20-25% have sufficient neutralizing antibody response to prevent actual infection.
Good news: Vast majority have an overall antibody response that protects and prevents symptomatic infection (you are infected but don't realise). That particular antibody response can be accurately measured and correlates with severity (or lack of) symptoms. Hardly anyone vaccinated will show severe symptoms. Also it does appear that vaccinated individuals are less likely to infect others due to the lack of viral load developing.

Personally I see this as a warning that "herd immunity" will not be attained with this virus and it will become endemic like the other circulating coronas. I will be continuing to wear masks in shops etc. and take basic precautions, I think everyone should do that for some time for the time being. I don't believe another lockdown makes any sense, but we should all consider basic safe working practices where practical. Would be helpful if the young people dithering got vaccinated as well. It will definitely reduce the spread. Maybe free pizza will do the trick

More good news: studies are underway to test the best booster options. This includes mixing vaccines. One piece of data shows that 2x AZ + a booster from an RNA vaccine (Pfizer or Moderna) gives a really strong response. I have had AZ, would be happy to get Pfizer as a booster.