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| Quote: sally cinnamon "Other than in the countries where they have comprehensive testing (S Korea, China etc) the data on caseload is likely to be inaccurate because it completely depends on the country's testing criteria.
If they are only testing a certain sub population - those who end up in hospital or who have recently travelled back from an infected region (which is now basically everywhere) then once it becomes widespread, the official figures on cases will not be an accurate measure of the underlying caseload in the population.
But if the mortality rate from the disease (whatever it is) stays constant over time, you can use the number of deaths announced per day as a way to infer what is happening with the underlying caseload. If the average time from showing symptoms till death is 14 to 17 days, then the number of patients that die today tells you something about what the underlying caseload was 14 to 17 days ago.
The mortality rate may not stay totally constant over time - once the case load reaches a level where the health service is over capacity the mortality rate will rise and when it falls below that level it should fall down again. But it may be reasonable to assume these as one-off shifts at certain points, rather than the mortality rate varying a lot over time.
So to track the effectiveness of distancing measures brought in, look at what happens to daily deaths in about 2 to 3 weeks after they were brought in. What you hope to see is some change - if not a fall in absolute terms, at least a levelling off of the rate of growth, which suggests you've got it under control.
As we are still in the early stages this might be a 'noisy' indicator in that from day to day the numbers might bounce around a lot and also there will be some patients who became sick in the early stages and who have been in ICU for a long time and ultimately die several weeks later, so for a few weeks there will still be some deaths from the 'pre-measures' point, coming up in the daily death rates.
I think we should expect to see some very sharp rises in the daily death rates in the next couple of weeks, which will be alarming, but if the growth rate starts to fall after that, even if the deaths keep rising, that will suggest that the measures are starting to work, and should hopefully level off, and then start falling.'"
How many of these unfortunate deaths would have occurred anyway if they had got a particular strain of the flu? I agree we will see some escalation in the numbers over the next week.
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| Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "These tables relate to the US - what has that got to do with the UK death by age?'"
I didn't say UK and in your question neither did you, I quoted death rates from covid. They are pretty much identical across the globe in every country and this is a good example table. Only variations are in countries like India and some of the developing countries where higher percentages of deaths are starting to appear in younger people.
I could have posted the UK figures for last week, the percentages are roughly the same.
Where did you get your data from?
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| Well those last four years were some crazy ****.
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Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I am not talking about the likes of JHB, Morgan and Young I am talking about the likes of Sridar and Gupta who educate our university students - are you saying they are not experts?'"
You did mention JHB so I did.
As for Gupta, yes, she's an epidemiologist but maybe you should watch this cringeworthy interview with Andrew Neil from October, where in the first 2 minutes makes a total fool of herself by saying (prompted by the human potato) the 50,000 cases per day projected by the governments advisors was nonsense. Where did we get to? 85,000 on one day in December?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxrG4hW3q2s
Gupta has been on the fringe of the scientific consensus since the beginning of the pandemic and is a strong proponent of herd immunity. Many of her predictions have been proved to be false and she has a poor track record on predictions.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
Herd immunity, the Great Barrington Declaration and the "Libertarians" behind it. Have a read of this.
https://arena.org.au/the-coming-covid-s ... claration/
It's not entirely critical and I think a well balanced review. We should not discount alternatives, that's counter productive - all options on the table.
The problem with Gupta in particular is that she's made grand statements and assumptions that have proved to be very, very inaccurate or just plain wrong. She also seems incapable of re-assessing her own position..
To be honest you can find all this out for yourself, I don't know why I'm doing it for you.
I actually work with some of the guys in the Oxford Zoology department, spoke to one of them today in fact. They are doing interesting work on Covid.
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Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I am not talking about the likes of JHB, Morgan and Young I am talking about the likes of Sridar and Gupta who educate our university students - are you saying they are not experts?'"
You did mention JHB so I did.
As for Gupta, yes, she's an epidemiologist but maybe you should watch this cringeworthy interview with Andrew Neil from October, where in the first 2 minutes makes a total fool of herself by saying (prompted by the human potato) the 50,000 cases per day projected by the governments advisors was nonsense. Where did we get to? 85,000 on one day in December?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxrG4hW3q2s
Gupta has been on the fringe of the scientific consensus since the beginning of the pandemic and is a strong proponent of herd immunity. Many of her predictions have been proved to be false and she has a poor track record on predictions.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
Herd immunity, the Great Barrington Declaration and the "Libertarians" behind it. Have a read of this.
https://arena.org.au/the-coming-covid-s ... claration/
It's not entirely critical and I think a well balanced review. We should not discount alternatives, that's counter productive - all options on the table.
The problem with Gupta in particular is that she's made grand statements and assumptions that have proved to be very, very inaccurate or just plain wrong. She also seems incapable of re-assessing her own position..
To be honest you can find all this out for yourself, I don't know why I'm doing it for you.
I actually work with some of the guys in the Oxford Zoology department, spoke to one of them today in fact. They are doing interesting work on Covid.
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| Quote: DHM "I didn't say UK and in your question neither did you, I quoted death rates from covid. They are pretty much identical across the globe in every country and this is a good example table. Only variations are in countries like India and some of the developing countries where higher percentages of deaths are starting to appear in younger people.
I could have posted the UK figures for last week, the percentages are roughly the same.
Where did you get your data from?'"
I think you knew very well I was quoting the the UK - and quoting one week is hardly representative.
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33809_1522680904.png 'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_33809.png |
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| Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I think you knew very well I was quoting the the UK - and quoting one week is hardly representative.'"
Sadly, that one week will have included thousands of 'events' (deaths), so the sample size isn't small and likely is representative.
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