FORUMS > The Sin Bin > US Presidential election 2020 |
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| No I think it's a near certainty that Biden has got the nomination now.
The others all dropping out and endorsing Biden before Super Tuesday made the difference.
I think this plays well into Trump's hands. Biden is the easiest opponent for him because he can use the same model that worked against Hilary:
- "Establishment swamp" - Biden has had the same establishment forces rallying behind him that Hilary had to ensure that he got the nomination. Neither really had a groundswell grass roots movement.
- "Corruption" - Hunter Biden will be the "Hilary's emails" of the campaign.
Hilary was at least a confident debater. Biden is a bumbler who will look weak in comparison to Trump. He also possesses some of Trump's unpleasant characteristics (arrogant, smug, sexist, rude) without going all out and owning it like Trump does.
However it's not in the bag for Trump because coronavirus and the likely economic impacts will remove Trump's ace in the pack about "booming economy" and also expose him as a weak leader, if it hits the US medical system hard and he is seen to be ineffective in dealing with it and instead using the crisis to just blame others. It's easy for people to rally behind Trump's attacks on others when people aren't experiencing the effects themselves, but coronavirus impacts are going to hit his base too.
Trump doesn't have a broad coalition of voters, his strategy is on holding his base firm and making sure the electoral college holds for him, so he's vulnerable to a small degradation of that base. Biden has a chance of beating him no matter how unimpressive he is, as just the "anyone but Trump" candidate.
One thing which will be decisive will be whether Bernie's supporters actively campaign for Biden (which will be hard for them to accept) or whether some just don't bother turning out and voting - I think this hit Hilary.
If Biden becomes President though, I expect him to be a very unimpressive President and an easy target for Republican media. The best thing he could do is see himself as a one term President and intend to hand over the reins to one of the younger ones next time. So the choice of running mate will be quite interesting.
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| Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "These tables relate to the US - what has that got to do with the UK death by age?'"
I didn't say UK and in your question neither did you, I quoted death rates from covid. They are pretty much identical across the globe in every country and this is a good example table. Only variations are in countries like India and some of the developing countries where higher percentages of deaths are starting to appear in younger people.
I could have posted the UK figures for last week, the percentages are roughly the same.
Where did you get your data from?
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| Well those last four years were some crazy ****.
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Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I am not talking about the likes of JHB, Morgan and Young I am talking about the likes of Sridar and Gupta who educate our university students - are you saying they are not experts?'"
You did mention JHB so I did.
As for Gupta, yes, she's an epidemiologist but maybe you should watch this cringeworthy interview with Andrew Neil from October, where in the first 2 minutes makes a total fool of herself by saying (prompted by the human potato) the 50,000 cases per day projected by the governments advisors was nonsense. Where did we get to? 85,000 on one day in December?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxrG4hW3q2s
Gupta has been on the fringe of the scientific consensus since the beginning of the pandemic and is a strong proponent of herd immunity. Many of her predictions have been proved to be false and she has a poor track record on predictions.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
Herd immunity, the Great Barrington Declaration and the "Libertarians" behind it. Have a read of this.
https://arena.org.au/the-coming-covid-s ... claration/
It's not entirely critical and I think a well balanced review. We should not discount alternatives, that's counter productive - all options on the table.
The problem with Gupta in particular is that she's made grand statements and assumptions that have proved to be very, very inaccurate or just plain wrong. She also seems incapable of re-assessing her own position..
To be honest you can find all this out for yourself, I don't know why I'm doing it for you.
I actually work with some of the guys in the Oxford Zoology department, spoke to one of them today in fact. They are doing interesting work on Covid.
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Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I am not talking about the likes of JHB, Morgan and Young I am talking about the likes of Sridar and Gupta who educate our university students - are you saying they are not experts?'"
You did mention JHB so I did.
As for Gupta, yes, she's an epidemiologist but maybe you should watch this cringeworthy interview with Andrew Neil from October, where in the first 2 minutes makes a total fool of herself by saying (prompted by the human potato) the 50,000 cases per day projected by the governments advisors was nonsense. Where did we get to? 85,000 on one day in December?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxrG4hW3q2s
Gupta has been on the fringe of the scientific consensus since the beginning of the pandemic and is a strong proponent of herd immunity. Many of her predictions have been proved to be false and she has a poor track record on predictions.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
Herd immunity, the Great Barrington Declaration and the "Libertarians" behind it. Have a read of this.
https://arena.org.au/the-coming-covid-s ... claration/
It's not entirely critical and I think a well balanced review. We should not discount alternatives, that's counter productive - all options on the table.
The problem with Gupta in particular is that she's made grand statements and assumptions that have proved to be very, very inaccurate or just plain wrong. She also seems incapable of re-assessing her own position..
To be honest you can find all this out for yourself, I don't know why I'm doing it for you.
I actually work with some of the guys in the Oxford Zoology department, spoke to one of them today in fact. They are doing interesting work on Covid.
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| Quote: DHM "I didn't say UK and in your question neither did you, I quoted death rates from covid. They are pretty much identical across the globe in every country and this is a good example table. Only variations are in countries like India and some of the developing countries where higher percentages of deaths are starting to appear in younger people.
I could have posted the UK figures for last week, the percentages are roughly the same.
Where did you get your data from?'"
I think you knew very well I was quoting the the UK - and quoting one week is hardly representative.
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33809_1522680904.png 'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_33809.png |
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| Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I think you knew very well I was quoting the the UK - and quoting one week is hardly representative.'"
Sadly, that one week will have included thousands of 'events' (deaths), so the sample size isn't small and likely is representative.
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