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FORUMS > The Sin Bin > US Presidential election 2020 |
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| Haven't seen a thread on this so far so thought this would be an interesting topic to discuss.
Seems like Bernie Sanders has established himself as the front-runner in the Democrat primaries and the others need to move fast to chase him down.
Big problem for the others is that there are basically 4 chasing the same 'lane' (centre-left Democrat 'establishment') - Biden, Buttegieg, Kloubachar and now Bloomberg. In 2016, Hilary had that lane to herself as the Democrats kind of accepted it was her 'turn' (although Bernie pushed her harder than expected back then).
Personally my favourite is Elizabeth Warren. I think she's the most intelligent of the contenders and I'm familiar with some of her work on competition policy and she's very good. I think she suffers from being perceived as too left leaning for the establishment Democrats to like, but she's not got the track record or campaigning infrastructure behind her as Bernie who has been around a while as the leader of the American left.
Bloomberg I think is throwing away his money in this campaign. I think he is just trying to test the theory that money buys elections as he's richer than anyone and doesn't need to suck up to donors so can self-finance. It will buy him a lot of coverage but it's hard to see where his core vote will be. Trump at least appealed to a 'base', but the people that don't like Trump will not warm to Bloomberg, other than the fact he insults Trump on twitter.
Buttegieg, Kloubachar - a bit lightweight. They are struggling to get heard.
Biden is probably the only one who could beat Bernie but I think Biden's time is gone, he should have been the front runner with his name recognition and being the 'safe' choice for people who don't want to see much change, but have a President who is more of a "uniting" figure rather than divisive like Trump. Biden has built his reputation on being bipartisan and working with Republicans. He's probably struggling because the country is so divided, you're either for Trump or you hate him, and the Trump haters want to rally round an obvious anti-Trump like Bernie more than Biden.
If Bernie gets the nomination, as seems likely at the moment, it will be like a mirror image of Trump. He would start the Presidential campaign as the big underdog with people predicting that nobody 'like him' could actually become President and once the establishment media flings mud at him saying he's unelectable/a disgrace to America he will get smashed. Which is what they said about Trump. In 2016 people underestimated how strong and loyal Trump's 'base' was, and they might underestimate Bernie's base too. Back then a lot of Republicans who found Trump odious held their nose and voted for him anyway, because they wanted to get Republican things done (judicial appointments, tax cuts etc). Bernie's route to the White House requires the same kind of effect where moderate Democrats hold their nose and vote for him to get Trump out and end the Republican control of the ability to rig the system, figuring that a largely moderate Congress would act as sufficient constraint on him. Add enough of those to his hard core base and he'll be the Trump of 2020.
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25511_1478008518.jpg "Well, I think in Rugby League if you head butt someone there's normally some repercusions":d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_25511.jpg |
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| Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "These tables relate to the US - what has that got to do with the UK death by age?'"
I didn't say UK and in your question neither did you, I quoted death rates from covid. They are pretty much identical across the globe in every country and this is a good example table. Only variations are in countries like India and some of the developing countries where higher percentages of deaths are starting to appear in younger people.
I could have posted the UK figures for last week, the percentages are roughly the same.
Where did you get your data from?
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22575.gif "Brian McDermott, with a wry smile, nods when asked if he remembers a specific incident which made him realise he was a prick. 'I do', he murmurs.":22575.gif |
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| Well those last four years were some crazy ****.
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25511_1478008518.jpg "Well, I think in Rugby League if you head butt someone there's normally some repercusions":d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_25511.jpg |
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Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I am not talking about the likes of JHB, Morgan and Young I am talking about the likes of Sridar and Gupta who educate our university students - are you saying they are not experts?'"
You did mention JHB so I did.
As for Gupta, yes, she's an epidemiologist but maybe you should watch this cringeworthy interview with Andrew Neil from October, where in the first 2 minutes makes a total fool of herself by saying (prompted by the human potato) the 50,000 cases per day projected by the governments advisors was nonsense. Where did we get to? 85,000 on one day in December?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxrG4hW3q2s
Gupta has been on the fringe of the scientific consensus since the beginning of the pandemic and is a strong proponent of herd immunity. Many of her predictions have been proved to be false and she has a poor track record on predictions.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
Herd immunity, the Great Barrington Declaration and the "Libertarians" behind it. Have a read of this.
https://arena.org.au/the-coming-covid-s ... claration/
It's not entirely critical and I think a well balanced review. We should not discount alternatives, that's counter productive - all options on the table.
The problem with Gupta in particular is that she's made grand statements and assumptions that have proved to be very, very inaccurate or just plain wrong. She also seems incapable of re-assessing her own position..
To be honest you can find all this out for yourself, I don't know why I'm doing it for you.
I actually work with some of the guys in the Oxford Zoology department, spoke to one of them today in fact. They are doing interesting work on Covid.
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Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I am not talking about the likes of JHB, Morgan and Young I am talking about the likes of Sridar and Gupta who educate our university students - are you saying they are not experts?'"
You did mention JHB so I did.
As for Gupta, yes, she's an epidemiologist but maybe you should watch this cringeworthy interview with Andrew Neil from October, where in the first 2 minutes makes a total fool of herself by saying (prompted by the human potato) the 50,000 cases per day projected by the governments advisors was nonsense. Where did we get to? 85,000 on one day in December?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxrG4hW3q2s
Gupta has been on the fringe of the scientific consensus since the beginning of the pandemic and is a strong proponent of herd immunity. Many of her predictions have been proved to be false and she has a poor track record on predictions.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus
Herd immunity, the Great Barrington Declaration and the "Libertarians" behind it. Have a read of this.
https://arena.org.au/the-coming-covid-s ... claration/
It's not entirely critical and I think a well balanced review. We should not discount alternatives, that's counter productive - all options on the table.
The problem with Gupta in particular is that she's made grand statements and assumptions that have proved to be very, very inaccurate or just plain wrong. She also seems incapable of re-assessing her own position..
To be honest you can find all this out for yourself, I don't know why I'm doing it for you.
I actually work with some of the guys in the Oxford Zoology department, spoke to one of them today in fact. They are doing interesting work on Covid.
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| Quote: DHM "I didn't say UK and in your question neither did you, I quoted death rates from covid. They are pretty much identical across the globe in every country and this is a good example table. Only variations are in countries like India and some of the developing countries where higher percentages of deaths are starting to appear in younger people.
I could have posted the UK figures for last week, the percentages are roughly the same.
Where did you get your data from?'"
I think you knew very well I was quoting the the UK - and quoting one week is hardly representative.
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33809_1522680904.png 'Thus I am tormented by my curiosity and humbled by my ignorance.' from History of an Old Bramin, The New York Mirror (A Weekly Journal Devoted to Literature and the Fine Arts), February 16th 1833.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_33809.png |
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| Quote: Zoo Zoo Boom "I think you knew very well I was quoting the the UK - and quoting one week is hardly representative.'"
Sadly, that one week will have included thousands of 'events' (deaths), so the sample size isn't small and likely is representative.
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